NL25: QQ donkbetted on turn

[IamSoTiredMother]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $27.60
UTG+1: $26.75
MP1: $5.30
MP2: $5.10
MP3: $22.90
CO: $37.75
Button: $19.40
SB: $25
BB: $24.85

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, 7 folds, BB calls $0.75 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $1.35)</font>.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2.1, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.5 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $3.6)</font>.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($5.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $3.25</font>, Hero calls $3.25 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $8.35)</font>.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($11.6, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6.25</font>, Hero ???

Villain is 43/3/2.1 160 fold to cbet 9/13
Notes:
- overplay tptk;

Villain is a bad player.
Any thoughts?

Thanks

[Genz]

I actually think you can fold the river. I can see few hands that your single pair beats. All kinds of draws have hit, villain won't reraise any hand. You basically only beat TT, 99, A8, while you are behind AA, KK, JJ, 88, 55, 44, A2, 67, 45, 34, J8. Given his high VPIP he will probably play all these hands even if they are unsuited.
You have 22% equity against this range. So you will lose $0.95 on average every time you call.

Edit: I think you actually have to include a few pure diamond draws too that he decided to semi-bluff on the turn putting you on high cards. Those combos might balance out with things like K8, T8 etc. though.

[FreshMeat]

raise more pf, he is in BB and will likely play this hand. any hand he will call a 4 BB pfr with he will call a 6-8 BB pfr. dont be afraid of not getting any play with your QQ. if you see a loose and crappy player in the hand either by blind or limp, make a bigger raise pf than usual with big pairs.

pot the flop. he usually folds to cbets so here he has to at least have a draw.

turn is fold or raise time, if you believe him or if you wont know what to do on river then fold, but this guy is loose and bad. i raise to 9$ and fold to RR or check river behind if called. i raise because this may be a blocking bet and i want to charge draws. i raise because if he has a straight, set, two pair, he is going to tell me with his next action either a call or a raise.

as played on the turn if you are going to call you should call river. the whole point of caling TR is that you put him on a pure bluff, you dont want to stop him from bluffing on river so you call turn, and call not raise river because your hand is not that strong so you wont get a better hand to fold.

Get busy raising or get busy folding.

[FreshMeat]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think you can fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesnt this mean we should have folded on the turn?

this is the problem with calling that turn. lots of cards are scary. so because we wont know specifically what draw he has we have to payoff river because the opportunity for a bluff on the river is so large.

[Genz]

Well, I actually do raise the turn here most of the time, as you suggested yourself. OTOH the board looks pretty suitable for a float that you can snap off with a simple call. I'd fold the river, because the Jd is a really bad card since it will kill the action from smaller pairs, gives one smaller pair a set and completes the flush draw. If it was something like Kc, I'd call.