Making a play vs a 25/20 cbet (thoughts?)

[Percussion]

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looks ok, this is a pretty good turn card to follow up on I would imagine.

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Not sure why you think this, are we hoping he now decides to muck 88-QQ b/c in my experience this is not what happens.

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This is flawed logic. If he is calling with 88 on that turn, we should be waiting for sets and not making moves here. I think that JJ+ will try to get it in on that flop alot no?

Also I don't think villain will the king hits hero, He will see that hero followed up with a turn bet, and will fold his float (which I don't think he ever has) his 88-99 all day, and probably TT or a flush draw.

If villain calls here with 88 or 99 he is dumb, but you are dumber for trying to bluff him =-)

[ikestoys]

i like it better on a dry flop, villain might call you down by putting you on a draw

[jambon]

as ikestoys said, its better on a dry flop, but, i def dont mind it. good thing about ur smaller raise on the flop is it gives u a bigger bet on the river ($210 into $370ish) to barrell again, and, as its a regular, if i got called on the turn id def jam the river as well

[TheJared]

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looks ok, this is a pretty good turn card to follow up on I would imagine.

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Not sure why you think this, are we hoping he now decides to muck 88-QQ b/c in my experience this is not what happens.

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This is flawed logic. If he is calling with 88 on that turn, we should be waiting for sets and not making moves here. I think that JJ+ will try to get it in on that flop alot no?


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No it isn't flawed logic. The logic behind him having 88 everytime on the flop is flawed. Most of the time he has no pair and folds to our c/r or a very small piece of the board and folds.

Once we get to the turn I think its clear:
His range is {draws, big hands, A7 and, 88-JJ} and not much else.

Of these hands which are folding to a 2nd barrel.
I think its clear that OP makes this play b/c he thinks hands like A7, 88-JJ are going to fold in this spot when the fact is these are not all of our opponents range (he has some other hands here that are never folding i.e. draws/big hands) and even A7, 88-JJ are going to choose to continue a lot here.

In other words firing this turn sucks given the range I listed above, and if you think he has a different range or believe that he will react with this range in a different way then please explain.

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Also I don't think villain will the king hits hero, He will see that hero followed up with a turn bet, and will fold his float (which I don't think he ever has) his 88-99 all day, and probably TT or a flush draw.

If villain calls here with 88 or 99 he is dumb, but you are dumber for trying to bluff him =-)

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I think you have narrowed his range too far. How can we exclude a big draw here? Are you saying he is going to fold a pair+flush draw here? What flush/straight draw hands are you even talking about. Most of them have combo draws on this flop and turn combination, he is not folding these. I think you would be surprised how often players will slowplay a set to a c/r on this flop against an agressive player as well who has been c/ring them often. I don't do it but players do it against me, on drawy boards like this one.

Also I think saying if he calls with 88-99 he is dumb is even dumber. All he is behind given the above line is {set, twopair} given that most of the two pair combos here are reasonably rare given the preflop action I don't think a call putting you on a draw is that bad of a read.

If you have been c/ring a lot of flops, and given that OP did this with QJs on this flop (probably in the bottom 10% of flops I would want to c/r with this hand) I think he probably has been agressive/mixing it up postflop and often folding 88-99 on this flop is a mistake and folding on this turn is an even bigger mistake for villain.

Sure if the guy is a c/r nit, but a lot of 2+2ers think that "outplay" means to always playback against c-bets on the flop and obviously once you figure this out its really exploitable as this hand shows.