Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer

[HBomb]

Beat or Brag, only had KK vs AA 13 times since Oct. 2004. This is a standard month for me.

[LionelHutz00]

[ikestoys]

does this ignore boats?

[RiverFenix]

Ike,
I know it counts quads. Not sure about boats.

[Shizzle12345]

i want to know sbrugby's setometer

[NajdorfDefense]

[Das Budrick]

I've been running hot lateley

[bfc]

[ QUOTE ]

I know it counts quads. Not sure about boats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Working backwards from the example given on the home page it appears it counts sets, boats, and quads.

At the risk of being flamed for posting theory in BBV, this is what I believe it does.

It defines "flopping a set" as "the flop contains at least one of the two remaining Xs when you hold XX".

The probability of this occurring in any given hand is 1-(48/50*47/49*46/48)=0.11755102

In the author's example he saw 1042 flops with pocket pairs so expected to flop 1042*0.11755102=122.5 "sets or better". This is the expected number of flopped sets. In actuality he only flopped 101 sets (the variance we know and love).

As others have said, the curve is the probability distribution of number of flopped sets (the expected value (i.e., mean value) is the peak). If we assume a binomial distribution then the standard deviation is sqrt(n*p*(1-p))=10.4.

Approximately 95% of the distribution should be within 2 standard deviations of the mean (assuming a normal approximation to the binomial). That is, between 102 and 143. If your actual number of flopped sets is in the tails (less than 102 or greater than 143) then you have been running either extremely hot or extremely cold (at least when it comes to flopping sets).

[A_C_Slater]

Is it supposed to take forever when you click Run? I tried uploading the last year and after 20 minutes of the hourglass I just gave up and closed the damn thing.