Live Turn Checkraise

[Esso]

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It seems to me he has at least TPTK

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of course it's possible, but not necessarily his minimum holding. even in this game, flop raises can mean alot of things.

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Fair enough, I'm probably off on his range. What did you consider his range to be at the time you c/r the turn?

[Rico Suave]

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BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

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Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

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I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico

[James.]

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BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

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Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

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I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico

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i missed this post completely. at the table i guesstimated 10% for simplicity, knowing it was high.

did you factor in implied odds, rico?

[Rico Suave]

"did you factor in implied odds, rico?"

2BB of implied odds when we hit (turn call and 1 bet on the river)...might be slightly higher with the 3rd opponent in.

--Rico

[James.]

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"did you factor in implied odds, rico?"

2BB of implied odds when we hit (turn call and 1 bet on the river)...might be slightly higher with the 3rd opponent in.

--Rico

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i used 2bb as well. my number was different but i went back and found where i made an error.

[Befolder]

Grunch.

This really seems like spewville here James. You're trying to buy a pot from three opponents w/ a weak gutterball. I'm sure your reads are pushing you towards a play like this, but you've described the button as tight, and they've 3-bet you, which is likely a hand that isn't fold on this flop.

I don't like the flop or turn at all, even w/ the high level of thinking I assume is going on here. Just seems like a poor spot to try this.

Just noticed we have a double gutter here. Doesn't change my opinion though.

[Befolder]

I think w/ the situation at hand and the two bad players in on the flop, they are your biggest obstacle for this play working because they suck and may call down w/ anything, which forces you to make your straight.

I think just drawing passively is best here. HU, would make much more sense to make this play trying to get the button to drop KK on the turn or something.

[Esso]

Here's my calc

Assumes you are never 3-bet, and collect one additional river bet in either scenario if you hit. You have 8 outs so you win 8/46 = 17.4% of the time.



EV (Calling) = (.174)(13.5) + (.826)(-1) = 1.523

EV (Raising) = 12.5p + (1-p)[(.174)(14.5) + (.826)(-2)]
= 12.5p + (1-p)(.871)
= 11.629p +.871

Setting the two equations equal and solving for p
11.629p + .871 = 1.523
p = .056 or 5.6%

So where did I go wrong?

[Xhad]

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You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

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Seriously?

[Mike Gallo]

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You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

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Seriously?

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Yes seriously.