Settle this Baseball Argument

[J.R.]

The success of a sacrifice attempt varies based on the D.

If you have The Book, check out page 283 (first edition). Long story short, its much harder to bunt in the 9th inning. To quote "The net result is that an average batter who bunts (as slightly worse than a league average hitter) achieves a greater WE for hitting away than from attempting a sacrifice, even in the bottom of the ninth in a tied game. Without going through the numbers, the results are similar with a runner on second or on first and second."

If your 2 hitter is average, Jack is right. It sounds like this 2 hitter is above average:

"In the ninth inning of a close game, below average hitters should bunt most of the time, given typical speed and bunting ability. Average hitters should bunt about half the time. Above average hitters should rarely bunt. The speed of he lead runner appears to be a significant in the success of failure of the sacrifice attempt in the ninth inning, and as always, the speed and bunting proficiency of the batter should be strongly considered." (p.284)

DP's matter a lot too.
"With a runner on first or first and second, and no outs, the batter's GDP rate (adjusted for the pitcher) should be considered in deciding whether to bunt." p 280
The

In a tied game in the bottom of the 9th, does not WE = RE?

[RacersEdge]

I assumed:

.300 hitters

.7 chance of successful bunt

.6 chance of hit or SF

I got 64% and 65% chance of scoring 1 run for bunt/no bunt.