50-100 Open Shoves into me ($220 HU)

[BCM11]

don't bother trying to tell me I should raise preflop and then fold when he shoves cuz I hate that play with 15 big blinds. Only other option is min raising preflop but I decide to limp and just take a flop. Anyway, your decision on the flop is...?

Seat 1: wolfandman11 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: BCM11 (1500 in chips)
BCM11: posts small blind 50
wolfandman11: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BCM11 [Js Kh]
BCM11: calls 50
wolfandman11: checks
*** FLOP *** [7s Ts 9s]
wolfandman11: bets 1400 and is all-in

[Indiana]

can you tell us anything about villain? also doesnt really matter preflop because he could shove after calling a minraise or whatever.....i am honestly not sure here at the moment. any reads at all?

[Indiana]

man i put villain on a high spade or a pair....could even be a pair with a high spade....so with a high spade he's got u as a dog or about even, with just a pair u r likely a small fav, and pair and a high spade not good for u....i fold.

[The Camel]

Very tough one.

I realy think the decision comes down to what % chance he could be shoving with an 8 or JQ. (ie you're winning at the moment)

If you feel it's a very small chance I think you have to fold.. If he's hyper aggressive and he has a very wide range of hands here it's a call.

[Indiana]

bcm while i dont have a ton of common sense, im a math whiz...put the hands u think he'd do this with out here and i'll run the math tomorrow.....i think its very close...

Indy

[BCM11]

Think about what they would open shove with and what they would try to gain value from. I am never drawing dead here and 99.9% of the time not drawing to a spade against a baby flush. Also think about how the ace of spades is probably getting shoved preflop and KspadesQx or KxQspades is probably also getting moved in (possibly its not, I know.) So that means, if our spade draw isn't live, it's very likely they are shoving a bare draw with only 11 outs twice and we have the best hand. Even if they show us the King of spades with top pair we have 9 outs if I remember correctly. 9 outs isn't good but for what seems to be worst case scenario it's not horrible. If they show us 2 pair face up we call and are a favorite. If they show us 1 pair with a weak spade draw or even no spade draw (what I figure to be a likely holding) we are crushing them. If they show us the bare King of spades we are a favorite having to dodge 11 outs. (another very likely holding) Also remember it's 50-100 and it's gamble-gamble time.

[derosnec]

if pot was bigger i'd call. you have a decent draw, but pot is not very big. he only has to have you crushed a small % of the time for you to be making a mistake by calling.

[Nichomacheo]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about what they would open shove with and what they would try to gain value from. I am never drawing dead here and 99.9% of the time not drawing to a spade against a baby flush. Also think about how the ace of spades is probably getting shoved preflop and KspadesQx or KxQspades is probably also getting moved in (possibly its not, I know.) So that means, if our spade draw isn't live, it's very likely they are shoving a bare draw with only 11 outs twice and we have the best hand. Even if they show us the King of spades with top pair we have 9 outs if I remember correctly. 9 outs isn't good but for what seems to be worst case scenario it's not horrible. If they show us 2 pair face up we call and are a favorite. If they show us 1 pair with a weak spade draw or even no spade draw (what I figure to be a likely holding) we are crushing them. If they show us the bare King of spades we are a favorite having to dodge 11 outs. (another very likely holding) Also remember it's 50-100 and it's gamble-gamble time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good analysis.