Two home game hands against a good player, ripe for discussion

Burno · #1 07-31-2007, 05:30 AM

Opponent is a significant winner online in MTT's, and to a lesser extent, SNG's. He's a pretty good hand reader, aggressive in the right spots, and generally "gets" poker. He's one of my best friends and I initially taught him how to play. He views me as an excellent hand reader who may lay down a smidge too much. We've known each other since childhood and have been playing poker together for a few years so the levels battles can go on and on.

Our home game this week only had 6 people so we played a $20 ribeye with 2k stacks. These can get pretty nuts on some nights but this night was reasonable with only 3 or so average buy-ins each. Everyone in this game is usually a winner online to some degree with few exceptions. Villain is the host and the biggest winner online along with myself. He respects my game a great deal and is not keen on playing pots OOP against me unless he has to.

Hand 1

5 left, 100/200. I have about 9K, villain has about 5K. The other 3 players have between 4 and 6K.

UTG folds and I raise XX in the CO to 500, my standard open. Villain calls out of the SB. HU to the flop

FLOP A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks without a pause, I bet 700 in tempo and he calls without too much thought.

TURN K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He makes a small pause and checks. I make a slightly longer pause and check behind.

RIVER 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He makes a small pause and then bets 1600. Hero?

What does villain have? What does Hero have? What should hero call with?

Hand 2

4 left, 200/400.

I cover villain's 10K with 11K. The other two players both have around 5K each and while small winners online, are both a bit weak tight and vulnerable to being bullied as they both place moneying over winning. Two spots pay 70/30.

Folded to me in the SB and I make it 1200 with 75o, my standard raise when I'm OOP. Villain pauses briefly before calling.

FLOP: 7 4 3r

Villain checks. Except its not his turn and another player quickly points this out to him. Villain is most definitely not shooting an angle here, so how would you interpret his mistake?-Did he think he was checking behind or did he think he was first to act and checking?

So the action is on me and I bet 1400. Villain goes AI.

Hero?

Dr_Wonderful · #2 07-31-2007, 05:41 AM

Hand 1- Looks to me like he missed a diamond but hit that King and is value betting/ semi bluffing the third club. I would call with an Ace for sure, and maybe a good k like KQ. probably not KJ though.

Hand 2- Although you may be ahead this is at best a semi bluff, although even if it is a pure bluff he likely has overs, and he has outs. At worst you're way way behind. I would fold.

drzen · #3 07-31-2007, 06:35 AM

1/ He could have a set. He expected you to bet the turn. You could have more or less anything but you bet a bit more than a standard cbet, so you probably have something, maybe an ace of some kind. I'm clearly wrong about the set or you wouldn't be asking what you can call with on the river. I wouldn't call with anything unless your turn check was intended to induce a bluff. Dr Wonderful's analysis is possible but there's a problem with it. He thinks your bet on the flop was a bit light and you don't have an ace. He picked up a pair of Ks on the turn, but delayed his bet to the river to deceive you into calling with... see, that's the problem. What can you have to call? He's made quite a decent bet.

2/ He thinks he's first to act. He has you crushed. Fold. He has to think you have TP or an OP and will call.

Dr_Wonderful · #4 07-31-2007, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1/ He could have a set. He expected you to bet the turn. You could have more or less anything but you bet a bit more than a standard cbet, so you probably have something, maybe an ace of some kind. I'm clearly wrong about the set or you wouldn't be asking what you can call with on the river. I wouldn't call with anything unless your turn check was intended to induce a bluff. Dr Wonderful's analysis is possible but there's a problem with it. He thinks your bet on the flop was a bit light and you don't have an ace. He picked up a pair of Ks on the turn, but delayed his bet to the river to deceive you into calling with... see, that's the problem. What can you have to call? He's made quite a decent bet.

2/ He thinks he's first to act. He has you crushed. Fold. He has to think you have TP or an OP and will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In hand 1 I don't think villain is trying to deceive Hero, Villain thinks he could very well be best, as Hero didn't play the hand with particular strength, and doesn't want to Hero to make a play at him so is making a strong bet to scare Hero off of reraising. That is why I call this a semi bluff/ value bet.

Burno · #5 07-31-2007, 06:45 AM

Thanks for the responses guys.

A couple notes.

Hand 1- Villain is never betting a K here for value, and I don't see him turning one into a bluff either. Very rarely does he turn a made marginal hand into a bluff.

What really befuddled me about this hand is that almost every draw I could put him on, KdXd or 56 paired up by the river. And obv the river takes 5c6c out of his range. I'd further note that based on a multitude of factors he's probably not value betting an ace here because of our dynamics he'll bluffcatch with it. Its the virtual nuts or air here, and I have a hell of a time taking his line and figuring how he could have gotten there.

2. Drzen- You seem fairly confident he assumed he was first to act. Why would you assume this over the alternative? Is it simply the more likely explanation? What concerned me here is that him checking out of turn followed by me then "obviously betting" makes his shove range freaking huge.

ymu · #6 07-31-2007, 07:51 AM

Hand 1 looks like a combo draw or weak A - 4d6d or Ax6x maybe. I probably wouldn't call with less than Aces up. If I thought he could do this with a weakish A (given my turn check), then I'd call with any 2 pair and maybe a naked A if I think my kicker is ahead of his preflop calling range (so probably AQ only).

Hand 2 is odd. An overpair, 2 pair or a draw might play it like this, I doubt a set or a made straight does. If we're beaten we probably have 9 outs, so we're ~2:1 dog. If we're ahead, we're probably better than 2:1 favourite given our redraws. So if both these scenarios are equally likely, a call is ++cEV.

Given that this pot is already large and we're getting very good odds, this call is nearly +cEV if we're always behind (we need 37.5% equity and probably have 33%). You only need to be ahead around 15% of the time to make this call +cEV - a bit more to make it +$EV depending on ICM - maybe 30% or so.

I don't know that you can use the check out of turn thing to help you here. There are so many levels - he could be raising because he knows there's a good chance you bet because he checked, but he could be pushing because he knows you know this. I wouldn't try to out think him on this - just go with the maths. If he's bluffing/semi-bluffing a reasonable amount, say 1/3 of the time, in this sort of situation it's a +$EV call.

E2A: the read on the other two players also makes this a call in hand 2. If you double up here you will pwn the bubble and almost certainly take 1st, so ICM may somewhat underestimate the equity of a call here.

Burno · #7 07-31-2007, 01:51 PM

bump

AMT · #8 07-31-2007, 02:29 PM

if villain isnt capable of a value bet w/ TP on the river here then hes prob not very good.

he could def have an ace or a busted draw here. he could also be turning a mid pp into a bluff here. it doesnt look like youre calling, but id usually call with an ace here.

Slim Pickens · #9 07-31-2007, 02:37 PM

grunch

Hand 1: Villain has Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero has 99. Hero should call.

Hand 2: It looks like a semi-bluff, except that there's nothing to semi-bluff on that board. Hero only beats A6, A5, 66, and 55, so he folds.

Burno · #10 08-01-2007, 02:32 AM

RESULTS BELOW:

Hand 1.

I tanked until my next birthday before finally calling with 33. My buddy made this awful face so I was certain I made the hero call until he rolled KK with a "sry" attached. I still like my read here given all available info as based on our dynamic this is air or the virtual nuts every time.

Hand 2.

I snapcalled his AI with 75o. He had Kd7d and I rivered a 5 to win the 30/70 and suck out on my buddy for the first time ever. I think that against a good aggressive opponent, after the checking debacle, given the current stack line ups and pay structure, on a board that he knows and I know no one ever hits, I must call his AI. Otherwise I should just fold preflop, which of course may be the best play of all.