Is this an auto bet-call situation? NLTRN

[ChicagoRy]

The problem is you're well ahead of almost anybody's c/r raise on the flop. If you miss your hand on the turn you lose way too much equity in the pot to play this hand for nearly the profit you would on the flop.

[Stoneflip]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is you're well ahead of almost anybody's c/r raise on the flop. If you miss your hand on the turn you lose way too much equity in the pot to play this hand for nearly the profit you would on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What check raises do we beat? We cant beat any any 8,5,or 2, A anything, or pocket pair. We beat K9->, QJ-Qrag, J10,J9,etc. It seems like the villians c/r range is much more likely to have us beat then not. What hands are we hoping to encounter that have any fold equity that we beat.Seems to me only ace high.

[Stoneflip]

I still think this is a good cbet, but i fold to the checkraise. Is this a leak?

[ChicagoRy]

Do you see the flush draw Stone?

Besides having fold equity if he raises us on this board (which you should versus most villains, and if you don't they either give up here with anything except a hand or they are going to call with a wider range we are ahead of) we are ahead or flipping against almost any holding.

We're 45-55 against K8 hands.

[Wu36]

bet folding here is abysmal.

[Stoneflip]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you see the flush draw Stone?

Besides having fold equity if he raises us on this board (which you should versus most villains, and if you don't they either give up here with anything except a hand or they are going to call with a wider range we are ahead of) we are ahead or flipping against almost any holding.

We're 45-55 against K8 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah i see the flush draw, that gives us 35% plus the overs brings us to 45%. I dont see a reason to get it in as a dog when we will have an advantage against most $10 players the more hands we play. My nittines aside, I guess if we have more than 5% fold equity, its a good allin. Thanks for straightening me out.

[ChicagoRy]

How do two overs aka 6 outs give us only 10% equity? 6 overcards outs + 9 flush outs is 15 outs which is about 60% to hit our hand. I'd imagine we'd have about 13 outs on average against most opponent's range to get it in, meaning we're 52%. Give or take 5% on that, but we're flipping if they get it in. We pick up the c-bet most of the time, and if they raise we still have fold equity against virtually every player, the amount depending on the player.

This is a great spot to be in IMO, even moreso because it is a 220 dollar buyin match.

[BCM11]

I think there's no other way to play it other then betting and beating them into the pot if they push. I was just curious what others thought.