NL50 AA faces heat on turn

[BishopsFinger]

you have to be good ~25% of the time to be neutral ev here.

maybe he does have a pure bluff or has decided to turn his ak into a bluff but that does not account for 25% of the time. not even close.

calling here is -ev.

[HBomb]

I think it's a 50/50 situation here, half the time you're ahead here and half the time you'll be behind, however, I ran into a situation just like this with an over pair yesterday in which my villan lead into me OOP on turn with a flush draw and stacked off to my all in anyways and hit his flush draw. I think often you will see pair + draws shoving here. Maybe KQ/KT.

[reef2287]

i agreeee, i say CALL, sorry didn't justify that but this line just screams 8/10... that is all, but i still advocate a call because we only have to win about half of these to be +EV

[Pobedonstev]

it really looks like 8/10 but I'd probably call anyway because I'd rather lose the money than not win it.

[kurto]

Everyone's narrowing it to the inside straight draw on the flop? 66 or 99 is more likely of hands that hero is ahead of. Even hands like 67 should be considered.

I just can't believe everyone is settling on ONE hand (the one hand that would make villain the most donkish too).

I also think villain has here hands like AK, KQ or as weak as a draw here enough times that hero should call considering pot odds.

[Speel Posher]

i dont like it, but with pot odds i think you have to call.

[BackdoorQuads]

Wow, I keep going back and forth between folding and calling. Generally, a donk like that screams "DRAW! Please raise me..." to me. And after pushing, I think he might have something like a pair and a flush draw, or even AQd often enough for this to be a call with the odds we're getting. My original thought was that villain might have a set and just be playing it sort of weirdly (small bet on the turn to get Hero to call even if he missed the flop). This is a really tough situation. I probably make the call and expect to be behind most of the time. I really don't know if we have enough equity.

[wildzer0]

Sometimes this is a monster, sometimes this is a stubborn AK or even KQ, and sometimes this is a draw that villain got frustrated with. I think his range is wide enough to go ahead and call here.

[Holdem_King]

all in

[cbk86]

I have to agree with Kurto here. I think a set is much more likely, or a pair+draw.

I'm thinking 77. Wouldn't villains line make sense then? Completes OOP, calls the raise for setvalue, floats the flop, and then get lucky on the turn?

66 or 99 slowplayed on the flop I think is likely too.