200NL - Whiffed Hand Turns into Draw on the Turn

[ThaHero]

Getting raised on this turn isn't that bad. We have a NFD, Q for a straight, and our Ace might be good. I'd rather bet than check.

[toss]

Priced in. I think betting turn is best with villain's call range.

[bilbo-san]

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And unfortunately we are behind this very wide range with Ahigh.

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We are not value betting.

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Yo. Let's assume we are a 2:1 dog vs. his calling range.

So we are betting $25 into $41, which means if he calls we have ~$30 equity in this pot. That's huge. Even if he never folds, that's good. If he folds 20% of the time, that's monstrously +EV. And this doesn't consider any money we make once we hit, this assumes that we just win the ~$90 pot when we hit.