Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10

[ocklind]

Villain is running at 28/18/1,5/31% (VPIP/PFR/TOTAL AF/WTSD%) over 207 hands. His flop AF is seemingly low, only 1,25.

Although his WTSD of 31% he has showed mostly legitimate hands.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $1,816.00
BB: $1,724.90
UTG: $727.49
<u>MP: $2,451.25</u>
<u>Hero (CO): $2,075.00</u>
BTN: $1,697.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $35.00</font>, Hero calls $35.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $60.00</font>, MP calls $60.00

<font color="red">He check/calls the flop, I figure his range could be AK,AQ,T9,98,22,44,55,66,88,99,TT and maybe a slowplaying JJ. I rule out 76s-ish hands since I have already seen three sevens. I think he would most likely bet 33 and any other hit w/ a J, or an overpair.</font>

Turn: ($205) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $145.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $290.00</font>, Hero calls $145.00
<font color="red">
This is very weird to me, I dont put him on J8 when raising UTG, that firstly check/called the flop and then C/R minimum on the turn. I think T9, what else could he have? I just call since I dont think he will call me w/ much worse that played THAT passive on the flop.</font>

River: ($785) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets all-in for $2,066.25</font>

<font color="red">
I fill up and figure but still figure if I can call. I've greatly underrepped my hand I am suddenly afraid of J8. His UTG PFR raise doesnt have to mean a premium hand since I only have 207 hands on him. I now can put him on AJ as well, for a slow/weird played TPTK, but I still dont know what to do? As I stated earlier I think he would bet the flop w/ a jack. </font>

[ajloeffl]

Based on your seating chart, he is in the hijack position and not UTG. He could have 33, JJ, J7. It is a dry enough flop to slow play. A single pair of jacks probably bets this flop though and 9T would bet it as well instead of check/calling. Somehow on the turn he represents a big hand by the mincheckraise and you call signaling you like your hand as well. I really doubt he mincheckraises the turn with just AJ. He could put you on a set or maybe top pair after you call the minraise. If he thinks you have top pair he may be pushing with 33 hoping for a call. Or he could have quad jacks or J7 and think you have 33 or 77. Without more of a read, this is pretty hard to play, but before the river hit I'd have to put him on a set of jacks. Don't discount him having quads just because it is unlikely. Usually an overbet on the river is the nuts no matter how unlikely.

[DrMagic]

wtf raise the turn please

[ajloeffl]

I don't agree with the turn raise suggestion. After raising PF and check/call, checkraising, he most likely has a set of jacks. If you raise the turn you go broke to a set of jacks and most worse hands may fold. Play this hand to get more value from worse hands and attempt to lose less against a better one. You are deep enough to get away from this 2nd best hand I think. If you only had 100BB I'd call.

[Choparno]

Villain's low aggression factor seems key here, even if it is only over 207 hands. I don't pretend to know what to do at 200bbs deep but this looks like quad Js or a turned set of 8s that filled up.

[Praetor]

I think this is a fold, he has j8, quads or 88 most of the time IMO

[Jamougha]

It sucks but yeah, you're behind here a huge proportion of the time.

[Trivial]

I think this is precisely 88. If I had the luxury to think it through then I would fold the river.

[jfish]

riv is a fold, but i just keep jamming turn.

[fearless2k]

88 seems most likly to me..