MPMK awkward river

[yourface]

zala,

any way that a river bet goes in here is going to be -ev. however, the pot is big enough that we will be ahead enough of the time to make a profit at showdown.

I would guesstimate that when villain calls our river bet here we are ahead like 30% of the time or so, so it is definately not +ev to bet.

however, if we check we will want to call because of all the busted draws and such. villain is going to be checking behind a lot of the hands that we beat, so when he bets we are going to be losing more often than if we had bet and he had called, but probably still enough of the time to call a bet with the pot being large.

so we lose less on our river bet by leading out

someone (sweetjazz?) made a killer post ~1 month ago re: this kind of bet

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
3)Someone has a weaker FD or St8 draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a lot of busted draws in a preflop 3-bettors range here. So villain having a busted draw AND betting it if checked to is quite a parlay.

[zalazane]

I understand what you guys are saying, I'm just being a nit about the usage of the term "expected value".

The EV of folding is always 0, so how could it be better to bet if betting is -EV?

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you guys are saying, I'm just being a nit about the usage of the term "expected value".

The EV of folding is always 0, so how could it be better to bet if betting is -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I just suck at explaining. EV(b/f) is positive even tho the value of the bet in the sense of how much of it Hero wins when called is negative.

As I said. I suck at explaining what I mean.

[danzasmack]

"CO is a maniac PF. BTN just joined so I don't know if he knows this. Not sure how much value I get, at the same time I hate check/folding against an unknown."

So we can probably assume that the button doesn't know much about the CO to this point.

I'm folding pf here a lot TBH, if this was 2 orbits in and there was a "he knows i know" kinda thing then ok, but this flop is one of the few i'm going to be able to play well on.

The flop bet i like. I want to jam this board.

When we bet the turn the CO folds and the button calls, i'm a little suspect as to his range. I can see a hand like AJo here but i would still expect this guy to put a raise in, and def with a hand like AQo.

If he is just calling 2 streets with an ace that's fine, but at the same time, I think c/f'ing is bad with no read whatsoever. Even if he was a loose/passive and we didn't know it, most LPs are going to put in MORE action than they should after they 3/bet pf. I think any pocket pair calls you here and if you check a hand like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bets, so you can't c/f.

But I THINK you miss out on value by not betting (so despit the face that Jhi hands we can induce a bluff from, JJ is gladly checking behind). That's up to you though. However i'm pretty sure i KNOW you miss out on value by folding. Though if i bet and he raises i'll fold. I don't think anyone's mind can change gears that quickly this early in a session.

[yourface]

it is +ev to put one bet in on the river and get to showdown
in itself that bet is going to be -ev
we want to put in that bet in the least -ev way to maximize our ev from getting to showdown

[Heisenb3rg]

I bet/fold and pray he has QQ/JJ hoping you have a flush draw.

Im not good at check/folding huge pots, so this is definitly the next best option.

check/calling is pretty bad.

I always fold preflop too, but im starting to suspect im too tight in the BB to a 3-bet.

[Befolder]

Grunch.

Fold pf for two.
Flop: I like the lead because of your relative position. I assume you plan to 3 bang it?
Turn: c/c now.
River: If you're planning on calling a bet if you check, then you might as well bet right...and then fold.

[Tryptamean]

I think the closest decision here is pf. I don't think a call is horrible, but I think you'll be better off passing here OOP.

Flop I like, Turn I like.

Agree with the points, of oink, danza, heis etc on b/f.

Just a small point, the EV of c/f is not zero. If you knew for a fact the you always have the worst hand when he bets, then it is zero. However, you'll be folding the best hand x% of the time, so your EV will actually be -[x%]*[potsize].

[gehrig]

check folding always has an EV of zero. you cannot lose money without putting any in.

if you are a 15-1 dog when he bets the river, and a 3-2 dog when he calls a lead, then you should check fold.