Quick home field advantage question

modnareno · #1 07-22-2007, 12:55 AM

So baseball game is tied, in the bottom or the ninth or extra innings. What are the odds that the home team will win by 2 or more runs (multi run home run)? The tigers and KC were tied at the end of nine, and i said "well the tigers will cover the -1.5 about 10% of the time" and my buddy thought they would only cover like 5% of the time. What do you guys think?

I'm only looking at how often the home team wins by 2 or more runs when going into extra innings basically.

rjp · #2 07-22-2007, 01:17 AM

Since I was on KC +1.5 I'll look this up real quick.

rjp · #3 07-22-2007, 01:28 AM

Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Lester B · #4 07-22-2007, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive my ignorance, but where did you find this information? Is this from your own personal records or did you get it from an online resource?

Thanks

rjp · #5 07-22-2007, 01:03 PM

The data is online (retrosheet.org), but this cool guy I know ripped the last 10 seasons or so into CSV format that I can then use to dig up things like this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

New001 · #6 07-22-2007, 01:18 PM

That's pretty cool. Thanks for the info.

modnareno · #7 07-22-2007, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for looking this up. I was on KC +1.5 too, but i am a Tigers fan at heart so i was hoping for the "win by 1" so my wallet and my heart could both be happy. I guess I owe my friend a beer, he was very close at his 5% guess.

rjp · #8 07-25-2007, 11:58 PM

Washington [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

craig · #9 07-26-2007, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So baseball game is tied, in the bottom or the ninth or extra innings. What are the odds that the home team will win by 2 or more runs (multi run home run)? The tigers and KC were tied at the end of nine, and i said "well the tigers will cover the -1.5 about 10% of the time" and my buddy thought they would only cover like 5% of the time. What do you guys think?

I'm only looking at how often the home team wins by 2 or more runs when going into extra innings basically.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't you want to know, since you mentioned it above, how often the home team wins by 2 or more when going into the bottom of the 9th, not just extra innings? Unless I misread your post. I would assume that given the situation you described above (game must be tied) that the percentage should be the same.

craig