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  #1  
Old 07-22-2007, 12:55 AM
modnareno modnareno is offline
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Default Quick home field advantage question

So baseball game is tied, in the bottom or the ninth or extra innings. What are the odds that the home team will win by 2 or more runs (multi run home run)? The tigers and KC were tied at the end of nine, and i said "well the tigers will cover the -1.5 about 10% of the time" and my buddy thought they would only cover like 5% of the time. What do you guys think?

I'm only looking at how often the home team wins by 2 or more runs when going into extra innings basically.
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  #2  
Old 07-22-2007, 01:17 AM
rjp rjp is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

Since I was on KC +1.5 I'll look this up real quick.
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  #3  
Old 07-22-2007, 01:28 AM
rjp rjp is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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  #4  
Old 07-22-2007, 12:47 PM
Lester B Lester B is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive my ignorance, but where did you find this information? Is this from your own personal records or did you get it from an online resource?

Thanks
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  #5  
Old 07-22-2007, 01:03 PM
rjp rjp is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

The data is online (retrosheet.org), but this cool guy I know ripped the last 10 seasons or so into CSV format that I can then use to dig up things like this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #6  
Old 07-22-2007, 01:18 PM
New001 New001 is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

That's pretty cool. Thanks for the info.
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  #7  
Old 07-22-2007, 04:40 PM
modnareno modnareno is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the data I've got, there were 2,123 games that went into extra innings. Of these games, 118 ended with the home team winning by 2 or more runs. This equates to a 5.56% relative frequency.

Looks like bad beat city to me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for looking this up. I was on KC +1.5 too, but i am a Tigers fan at heart so i was hoping for the "win by 1" so my wallet and my heart could both be happy. I guess I owe my friend a beer, he was very close at his 5% guess.
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  #8  
Old 07-25-2007, 11:58 PM
rjp rjp is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

Washington [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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  #9  
Old 07-26-2007, 12:46 AM
craig craig is offline
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Default Re: Quick home field advantage question

[ QUOTE ]
So baseball game is tied, in the bottom or the ninth or extra innings. What are the odds that the home team will win by 2 or more runs (multi run home run)? The tigers and KC were tied at the end of nine, and i said "well the tigers will cover the -1.5 about 10% of the time" and my buddy thought they would only cover like 5% of the time. What do you guys think?

I'm only looking at how often the home team wins by 2 or more runs when going into extra innings basically.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't you want to know, since you mentioned it above, how often the home team wins by 2 or more when going into the bottom of the 9th, not just extra innings? Unless I misread your post. I would assume that given the situation you described above (game must be tied) that the percentage should be the same.

craig
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