Putting your opponent on a range that seems to justify a thin call

[L0QTiS]

Had a scenario at a final table recently that had me pause somewhat in my decision process on how to best approach the hand when it comes to all-in situations.

The scenario: Final table of 10/180 and we're down to 6

Hereo: 50k
Villian: 50k

Blinds are 200s 2000/4000

I raise to 12k in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I've been active, throwing in position raises such as this once or twice every orbit, last two orbits from the CO

Folded to the Big Blind who pushes

I'm getting about 1.8:1 on a call for my tournament life, or I can fold but be somewhat short compared to the rest of the stacks.

I figure villain is capable of pushing with a lesser hand here, or maybe even air
I figure villain may have had it with my stealing since I've been doing it rather consistently
Villain has seen me back off of a blind steal when I've been re-raised (once) in the last 3-4 orbits
Still, villain may have a legit hand
I discount AK and KK since I hold a King
I figure there's a fair chance AA might smooth call rather than raise, so this leaves:
AQ-AT, KQ, [22-88,TT-QQ], or maybe A-rag[2-8], or just plain air or any two [harrington 10%]

Factoring all this in I figure I'm probably on slightly worse than a 60/40 dog and given that I have the odds to call getting 1.8:1

* I call and win vs. a lesser hand - Brag - I rulez
* I call and win vs. a flip - Brag - I still rulez cuz I'm so lucky
* I call and lose vs a flip - Brag/Beat - I made the right choice, but I'm so unlucky - This site sucks
* I call and lose vs a hand that dominates me - Beat - I'm a donkey
* I call and win vs a hand that dominates me a suck out - Beat/Brag - I'm a lucky donkey

Is my thinking off here to justify a thin call knowing there's a fair chance I'm behind?

[MJBuddy]

ICM calculations.

[Yoshi63]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

...say to..?

[geestyle]

It ain't worked out, put it down. Nice hand to try and steal blinds with, not the best to try and double up in this spot.

[Yoshi63]

I don't really like making a 3x raise here ever. If I don't think a ~2.5x raise will take down the blinds often enough, then folding isn't all that terrible (I don't think?).

[BlueEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like making a 3x raise here ever. If I don't think a ~2.5x raise will take down the blinds often enough, then folding isn't all that terrible (I don't think?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm I agree with the 2.5x thing except that OPer already said that he was taking down blinds once or twice an orbit.

Also folding K9 at the final table, from the CO, 6 handed is lame.

[ger664]

1) Never put your opponent on a range that you would like them to have.
2) ICM learn and use it. It is youre greatest tool at FT and bubbles. Your chip stack has a value in relation to the payout stucture. cEV is always less then $EV but the difference is at it greatest on the bubble and in a steep payout MTT structure.

[BarryLyndon]

You are by far better off putting your opponent on a range that is reasonable for his play than one that is reasonable for your wants. Many times I have approached a turn play with "a plan" to call if x, y, or z falls, and then I readjust my range on the river because of a psychological
want (well, J is a card I was afraid of, but really, A is the bad one, so...here goes a call...doh, lost half my stack).

To avoid "justifications" on the river, have a good plan on the turn that is fairly steadfast unless villain does something VERY unusual. In other words, just becuase he PSBs the river instead of making a more expected value bet doesn't mean a hand at the lower end of your range didn't help him; in fact, if anything, it may be exactly what he is thinking (if he is thinking).

Barry