value 3-bet on the river?

xerber · #1 07-25-2007, 08:09 AM

MP2 is weak-tight
BB is loose passive

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: Low
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.4SB, 3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.7BB, 3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 folds.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6.7BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10.7BB

Should i really be afraid of the BD-flush? - c/r from a passive villain seems to be pretty strong.

topspin · #2 07-25-2007, 08:20 AM

Take the free card on the turn. As played, 3-bet the river: your hand looks much more like top pair than the nut straight, and villain could easily just have two pair.

JJack · #3 07-25-2007, 08:43 AM

i also take free turn's card and make 3bet/call river

Niediam · #4 07-25-2007, 08:46 AM

Preflop is fine.

Am I crazy for wanting to fold the flop with just overs whe na weak-tight bets into me?

Turn bluff is never going to work.

Reraise river for value.

sharpie · #5 07-25-2007, 08:50 AM

He'll play J9 like this. Depends how passive he is if he'll play QT/Q8 like this. I think he'll often play AQ like this.

16 combos of J9, 9 combos of AQ, 9 combos of QT and 9 combos of Q8. He won't always raise with these 2 pairs, but then again he might be have sandbagged a previous 2 pair or set, or show up with a hand like Q2. This rough estimate is 43 combos.

If we give him every combo of diamonds there are about 42 combos if I counted correctly. Now he won't always peel every one of these on the flop if they are undercards, but alot of these types will if they have a backdoor draw.

If you 3 bet the river he will rarely cap with a worse hand, but often cap with a flush. You don't need to be ahead a full 2/3s of the time since he'll sometimes overplay a straight and cap the river, or maybe sometimes not cap a flush, but you do need to be ahead a bit more than 50% of the time.

I think it's fairly close. At the table I'd 3 bet. If he is the type to peel loosely on the flop, and is very timid, I think the river is a call, since he can hold every diamond combo and won't be check/raising every 2 pair.

Also check the turn as mentioned.

xerber · #6 07-25-2007, 08:57 AM

I go with my reads on the turn - i know MP2 will laydown almost any pair without a draw because of the Ace and there´s also a good chance that BB will fold his hand. I might even have the best hand vs. BB, so to drive out MP2 - i semibluff.

RemyXO · #7 07-25-2007, 10:17 AM

I am 3-betting the river. Plenty of hands that would play like this and are worse (stupidly played sets, lower straight, 2 pairs, or even one pair).

I really like the turn semi-bluff bet though. Must have been reading Stox book too much [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Hero does have fold equity here, and can get free showdown UI. Hero was preflop raiser and A falls - villains with a pair should be thinking "aw crap" and slamming the breaks.

halpgr · #8 07-25-2007, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am 3-betting the river. Plenty of hands that would play like this and are worse (stupidly played sets, lower straight, 2 pairs, or even one pair).

I really like the turn semi-bluff bet though. Must have been reading Stox book too much [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Hero does have fold equity here, and can get free showdown UI. Hero was preflop raiser and A falls - villains with a pair should be thinking "aw crap" and slamming the breaks.

[/ QUOTE ]I think you may be giving opponents too much credit. I don't think you'll fold two very often with a turn bet. MP2 open limped. BB cold called a preflop raise. These aren't good players and advanced Stox plays will not work well against them. Take the free card on the turn.

RemyXO · #9 07-25-2007, 11:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am 3-betting the river. Plenty of hands that would play like this and are worse (stupidly played sets, lower straight, 2 pairs, or even one pair).

I really like the turn semi-bluff bet though. Must have been reading Stox book too much [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Hero does have fold equity here, and can get free showdown UI. Hero was preflop raiser and A falls - villains with a pair should be thinking "aw crap" and slamming the breaks.

[/ QUOTE ]I think you may be giving opponents too much credit. I don't think you'll fold two very often with a turn bet. MP2 open limped. BB cold called a preflop raise. These aren't good players and advanced Stox plays will not work well against them. Take the free card on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you gotta agree there is SOME fold equity here. Maybe not much, depending on your villains, but there is some. Free showdown if you spike a Jack or a King has merit versus free card on the turn. Also, if you hit our gutter, your opponents will never put you on a straight and bet/raise with worse hands - is this what happened here on the river?

So, we have to balance Fold Equity + Free Showdown vs Free Card. And this equation is pretty much dependent on your opponents.

NIX · #10 07-25-2007, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Am I crazy for wanting to fold the flop with just overs whe na weak-tight bets into me?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think so. I never fold here and I think I should.