TT flops bottom set, flop/turn question

[tjfields]

$0.50/$1.00 Full Ring

Main villain (CO) seems decent in the 5 or so revolutions I've played. All others are stations of the highest degree.

Hero is in MP with TT.

EP limps, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, EP calls, Hero calls.

Flop KJT rainbow

I decide to c/r to trap all the stations in the middle and avoid blowing the field away with 2 bets

SB checks, BB checks, EP checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, EP calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, EP calls, Hero ?????

Well, it looks like the field got two bets cold anyways. I obviously have enough equity in this pot to cap, but that equity changes drastically on the turn.

So, what is Hero's plan for the flop / turn transition?

1) Call flop, c/r non-scary turn to trap the two remaining stations for another 2 bets
2) Cap flop, lead non-scary turn
3) Some other "weird" line like call flop, donk turn.

For some initial data, I figure my hand vs CO lays out like this:

Woefully behind 6 combos of KK and JJ
Behind 16 combos of AQ, but with enough outs to pump the pot for equity.
Ahead of 24 combos of AA, QQ and AK (maybe add 3 combos of KQs) with gutshots + backdoors against me, but I have redraws against most.

What say you all?

Edit: coloring the raises correctly

[Buzz-cp]

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2) Cap flop, lead non-scary turn


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fwiw I would 3-bet this flop if I was villain w/AK. It's fine if he has AQ--your hand is like juicing a flush draw.

[steve1127]

#2. My reluctance to go with #1 is that if you are against KK or JJ, it's going to cost you more than it otherwise would. By capping on the flop and leading the turn, it's very tough for principal villain to raise you without KK, JJ or AQ, so you can slow down, esp if you don't improve on the river. So that costs you a small bet on the flop, 2 big bets on the turn and 1 big bet on the river. If you go for the call, c/r strategy and are 3-bet on the turn, that costs you an extra small bet, basically.

On the other hand, trapping the two bad players for an extra bet on the turn is probably more than worth it. So I've changed my mind. Go with #1.

What consistent analysis I've provided.

[NIX]

I'm a nit and I vote for option 2.

[RemyXO]

Number two is the winnah

[Xhad]

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#2. My reluctance to go with #1 is that if you are against KK or JJ, it's going to cost you more than it otherwise would.

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That and you often scare AK into checking by doing this.

[tjfields]

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#2. My reluctance to go with #1 is that if you are against KK or JJ, it's going to cost you more than it otherwise would.

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That and you often scare AK into checking by doing this.

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I don't understand why AK would be scared into checking after 3-betting the flop and not getting capped

He still needs to not give a free card to any Q that may be out there, and any of the 3-5 outers (K-low, J-low) the stations may be holding.

Now, replace AK in your argument by QQ and I think I may see the turn get checked through if I try #1. All other hands I put the CO on (AA, AK, AQ, KK, JJ) are betting the turn if checked to.

Thus, if I try to c/r the safe turn

I'm getting 3-bet-pwned by the 6 combos of KK and JJ
I'm getting 3-bet by the 16 combos of AQ but with 10 outs on the river to fill
I'm getting 2 bets out of 3 people if he has the 12 combos of AK.
I'm getting 2 bets out of 3 people if he has the 6 combos of AA.
I'm missing value if he checks behind with QQ.

If I have time this afternoon I may count up hands/bets in detail across these 2 lines to help me better understand.

FWIW, I think you guys are right that cap/lead is correct but I don't think it is a no-brainer, given the stations' dead money that we want to collect as much of as possible.

[steve1127]

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That and you often scare AK into checking by doing this.

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I don't understand why AK would be scared into checking after 3-betting the flop and not getting capped

He still needs to not give a free card to any Q that may be out there, and any of the 3-5 outers (K-low, J-low) the stations may be holding.



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I don't hate an AK check there. The stations are calling a bet there anyway, so there's not much protection by betting the turn, although it could be profitable. But if he's worried about your initial check-raise, he might decide that rather than risk being c/red again, he'll check the turn and call any non-A/Q/9 river. Is that such a terrible line?

[aK13]

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That and you often scare AK into checking by doing this.

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I don't understand why AK would be scared into checking after 3-betting the flop and not getting capped

He still needs to not give a free card to any Q that may be out there, and any of the 3-5 outers (K-low, J-low) the stations may be holding.



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I don't hate an AK check there. The stations are calling a bet there anyway, so there's not much protection by betting the turn, although it could be profitable. But if he's worried about your initial check-raise, he might decide that rather than risk being c/red again, he'll check the turn and call any non-A/Q/9 river. Is that such a terrible line?

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He has a made hand -- There's no reason a blank turn card (like a 2) would make it so that he has value on the flop to 3bet and not bet the turn. In fact, a card like that will improve his equity (if someone has a Q or something, 1 less card to come etc).

[Buzz-cp]

AK13 are you capping flop?

Buzz