Time to get sexy?

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer a screwplay to a sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

not with 2 hearts on the flop...

True

[Kwaz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I prefer a screwplay to a sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

not with 2 hearts on the flop...

True

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is miniscule. These are the exact sorts of hands that I like to c/r the turn with, so in future, I can get free cards when I need them.

[soah]

Just as the bet you gain from inducing a bluff only covers the portion of their range that actually bluffs.

If I'm OOP with a pair of sevens or ace high, checking to induce a bluff is opening the door for a lot of value bets. I'd much prefer to be against an opponent who will never bluff and never valuebet a hand worse than top pair... then I can play perfect against them.

[Cernunnos]

What happens if you check raise the river and because he is a complete muppet of a player and he has being calling with QJ, he now gets to 3 bet his str8. I prefer against an unknown to just bet. Without any notes or feel for the guy can you 4 bet that river if he did 3 bet.

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
I know nothing useful about the players:


[/ QUOTE ]

Sucky because of the above IMO(and the FD he may have that checks behind).

[gharp]

I'm not surprised that people don't like this, but I'm a little surprised that people don't like it this much. What I was thinking at the time was that he probably has:

(a) an A
(b) a K
(c) a pocket pair
(d) a flush draw
(e) QJ

First, if he has QJ I'm just screwed. It's probably going to be cappped whatever I do and I'm going to lose money.

If he has a flush draw that missed then checking is clearly best since he won't call but he might bluff. If he has an A I think checking is best too, since he's likely to try a value bet and also likely to pay off the raise. If he has a K or pocket pair, betting is probably better since the chance that he'll bet and pay off goes down.

So I guess it comes down to what you think the typical UTG limper has. I feel like people limp A's in more than K's so I weighted (a)+(d) over the others and tried the check-raise. One thing I didn't consider was that a lot of the flush draw hands that limp contain a T (JTs, T9s, T8s, etc) and might make a crying call if I bet. This might tip it too a bet too, if that isn't already the sure play.

[MatthewRyan]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet this everytime, it's not close

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard

[DocMartin]

I think this is a great time to get sexy IF you have a read that they will likely bet a pair or busted draw. Without the read the bet is likely best.