Observations from Official Poker Rankings - Page 7

BigAlK · #61 07-24-2007, 03:53 PM

You're really complicating the formula without a purpuse, I promise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As I understand it the formula is supposed to estimate your yearly profit based on the 3 inputs (an ROI assumption, games per month, and average buy-in). Look at this this way.

My proposed formula is (ROI/100)*ABI*GP*12.

If you wanted to compute your expected value for a single tournament you'd use the formula of (ROI/100)*buy-in. For example if your ROI is 80% and the buy-in is $100 then you would get (80/100)*100=(.8)*100=$80, right?

Therefore to expand this beyond one tournament you'd multiply it by the number of tournaments.

(ROI/100)*buy-in*tournaments. For 10 tournaments you'd get (80/100)*100*10=$800.

The formula I gave above is substituting average buy-in for actual buy-in and estimated tournaments per month for number of tournaments. You then multiply by 12 months to annualize the estimated profit per month.

The only purpose your constant is serving to counteract the unneeded divisions of the ABI and GP numbers.

kindling · #62 07-24-2007, 04:06 PM

BigAlK nailed it above. You can estimate what someone has actually made over the last 4 months by looking at their 120 day metrics and plugging it into the above formula. It's just based on the definitions of the metrics, and in the end you should just get their Profit. You can extrapolate that to a year if you want.

As the Mutual Funds say, past performance is not a predictor of future results. Your results will change as you get better, move up, or play more tourneys. You need to figure out what works the best within your bankroll and skill level. And don't forget the variance! More games played 'should' help overcome variance, if you're a winning player.

PoineDexter · #63 07-24-2007, 05:19 PM

I know, I know. I get the train of thought.

As I said I just wanted to have fun with this (and I am) but my 36,000 (universal constant for MTT poker) stands!!! I'm the author so you can only refute my work AFTER it's published. You can't change it now (unless you want to be cited on the paper). Then I'll let you in!! lol

I agree with kindling (BTW the Mutual Funds analogy is funny). In the end ROI may vary due to skill level but increase games = decrease variance.

Thanks for the feedback!!! Awesome.

BigAlK · #64 07-24-2007, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know, I know. I get the train of thought.

As I said I just wanted to have fun with this (and I am) but my 36,000 (universal constant for MTT poker) stands!!! I'm the author so you can only refute my work AFTER it's published. You can't change it now (unless you want to be cited on the paper). Then I'll let you in!! lol

I agree with kindling (BTW the Mutual Funds analogy is funny). In the end ROI may vary due to skill level but increase games = decrease variance.

Thanks for the feedback!!! Awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I get it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My paper that will be published to refute your paper will have the correct formula of:

(ROI/73)*(ABI/124)*(GP/469)*50,944,65.6.

The results seem accurate. As you can see you were WAY OFF. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

edit: Because I was off by a factor of 10. Oops.

PoineDexter · #65 07-24-2007, 07:45 PM

Good G*d I hope noboby else reads this thread. What an idiot!!! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Profit = ROI(as a percent)*ABI*GP (duh!). If you define GP as GP per month and then multiply by 12.... well, yeah, really, now I see! What a dick I am. All that noodling to get to that conclusion.

I already mailed my paper. Crap! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

But....

There are still some other issues we fleshed out that I would like more data on such as:

1) what is the average time to play an MTT? (Rizen has said 1.5 to 2hrs I think).
2) how many tables do most people play at a time?
3) what (sustainable) ROI can most "pros" maintain?

Number 1 & 2 are the factors that will dictate the time factor/time value and number three is the all important variable.

I think I'll use the formula and post some expected returns for different ABI, GP and ROI just for interest.

BigAlK · #66 07-24-2007, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good G*d I hope noboby else reads this thread. What an idiot!!! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Profit = ROI(as a percent)*ABI*GP (duh!). If you define GP as GP per month and then multiply by 12.... well, yeah, really, now I see! What a dick I am. All that noodling to get to that conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really thought you got it the post before and were playing with me. Now I'm not sure. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

PoineDexter · #67 07-24-2007, 08:36 PM

You are correct that I did basically know what you were saying. We had a factor of 3 (or 1/3 to be exact) in the variables (100/30 ~ 36/12). You counted twelve eggs where I swore there were a dozen. Anyway... I was thinking more about how we got to that point. We were trying to make educated guesses on things like ACTUAL sustainable ROI, ACTUAL GP, ACTUAL GPM (games played per month), ACTUAL profit and then working them backwards and, of course as you would expect, it fit the formula (ie. real life numbers).

These parameters all have limitations such as time, bankroll, skill etc. What are our real expectations for MTT poker and how does the formula compare against the real world expectations? That is open for discussion. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

PoineDexter · #68 07-24-2007, 11:36 PM

Henceforth "ROI*ABI*GPM*12=Annualized Gross Profit" will be referred to as:

The PoineDexter Profitability Theorem of MTT's
By: Professor PoineDexter

Acknowledgments and writing credits will be granted to BigAlK (senior graduate student). Note also that several others will be cited including kindling, NateAveson et. al.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]