A8s turn two pair, get c/red?

[Sphere99991]

Villain is 38/16 over a small sample, probably too small to take seriously.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $68.35
BB: $82.85
Hero (BTN): $62.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $15.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

I don't really think folding is an option here, but I'm open to arguments for it. Do we call and raise any decent river? Do we 3-bet all-in?

[Restlys]

the thing is, if you raise him and he calls your in a weird situation, if hes semi bluffing you then if you raise he would not call in most cases although you are rooting him to....a set plays like this although if i was him id have check raised you on the flop....i say standard donk, just call here and exercise pot control...if last card does not make a flush or isnt a 6 or 7 id put another bet in there

[deadmanspoker]

I see his pf call as an AQ looking to hit, then his check on the flop is him being worried about you having two pair or AK.

The turn bet seems like he has put you on two big cards.

Opinions?

[vixticator]

The only hands that make sense are like AcTJQc [edit: nevermind not possible], 55, and call flop to c/r any turn. Possibly A9 or A5 as well. I'd call here and call river. Think you need a stronger read to 3-bet, I'd certainly bet river if he checked and call if he CRAI on river.

**Edit**
He's either making a move on the pot or you are beat IMO. I'd still call and call river because I'm a station with two pair.

[Kasane]

OP holds the Ac, so the turned nut flush draw is less likely.

Sucky situation. I think we can fairly assume that there's a good chance our opponent is on a draw, so just calling seems a mistake. OTOH, we're behind most hands that c/r the turn legitimately this small and A9 is not much better than AK here (ahead of only A5 and 89, thin part of made hand range).

With two potential draws out there, and no idea which is which on the river, if we're going to call we'll have to push.

I vote push, but it's marginal unless I know opponent better.

I'd bet more on flop, fwiw.

[tripled83]

more than likely he has two pr. or a set, more than likely 95 or 88, possibly 76 if he thinks your just trying to steal hard (it might have more to do with what he thinks you could have)to say when they call a "standard" raise from the big blind, he could have just a draw but bb seems like he's trying to push you off a draw, your probably better off folding here and waiting for him to mess up when your hands a little better, if your not comfortable on the turn with 2 pr. your gonna be upset when he goes all-in on the river. what are your stats?

[Lurker.]

i probably call re eval, shoving is terrible for obv reasons.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
i probably call re eval, shoving is terrible for obv reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I'm ready to be convinced because it's real close for me. We get called by a lot of the made hands we're beating, and of course by the ones we're behind. I see bare and gutter plus, and pair plus flush draws call here all the time and that's a good hunk of the bluff raises. We get taken to value town on the river by anything better with a big, $40 psb left.

The only value to checking behind -- and it's pretty big -- is hoping villain wimps out on the river. We're going to be facing one tough, tough decision when it's bet as half the cards in the deck will be danger cards if we were even ahead on the turn. If we're ahead and committed to a river call of anything reasonable, that meant we were ahead on the turn and should have rr there.

If villain's range includes a fair amount of air, well, then I could see just calling.

This isn't a WA/WB where we can control the size of the pot type situation. We're ahead of one portion of made hands, behind another portion (slightly larger), and ahead of draws which we should be making pay and .. and air.

[Lurker.]

shoving is bad because he really only calls with hands that we're owned by (except maybe a5, which would be weird considering pf action)

[Hoffma]

This seems like a silly attempt to pick up the pot. Villain is barely making more than a minraise. I'm most worried about slowplayed sets and 67s, as these hands may be making small raises against us for value here. I'd rather take a cheap showdown against a potential monster than shove into one. I'll call here and re-eval river, hoping not to see broadway cards (to give 2 pair to AK/AQ), hearts, clubs, a paired board, or a huge leading bet from the villain.