Mid-late to late stages tourney strategy: passing up marginal +EV?

[RonFezBuddy]

I'd like to get your opinion on the concept that shoving from LP when it's folded to you is generally +EV and whether it is always right make a +EV play mid-late to late in a tourney, if you already have a solid stack and a negative outcome cripples or puts you out of a tournament.

This is a somewhat results oriented post but I have been observing that I am getting deeper and deeper in tournaments lately due primarily to stealing from LP, or calling steals from aggressive players based on reads.

These are all good things and definitely "breakout" type results for me. It's difficult at first to put these concepts into practice but once you get comfortable with assigning ranges and understanding +EV your game definitely changes and you understand the value of the chips in the pot compared to your hand. And just how important it is to accumulate chips.

However, I am also finding that while these improvements to my game are helping me get deep (for example final 2-3 tables of 1000+ fields frequently), I almost always eventually get busted on a steal or a resteal before the final table. So in short, the aggression is getting me close to the big stage, but knocking me out when the SB/BB wakes up with a decent hand or outdraws me.

For example, I recently had A8 in the BB late in a tourney. The button was fairly aggressive and raised 4x the blinds. I had him covered 60k to 40k when blinds are 2k - 4k. I thought I sniffed a steal. Based on his range, I estimated that a resteal was +EV. I was correct. He had J8 and called (incorrectly I would think). The fact that he hit a few Js isn't the point. What I am unsure of is, is it worth the gamble there since so many of my chips are on the line if I am wrong or outdrawn? Especially since I was ok with chips.

In another example I had a decent stack in a $5r. I had 100k when average was about 65k. There were about 100 left of 2500. I had K10 on the button and shoved into the SB and BB (25k and 50k stacks respectively). The BB called with 66. My image was actually tight at this stage so I was suprised he went with 66. His hand held and I lost a big stack and was forced back into medium stack mode. Was this move right? I know it's +EV, but really should I have slowed down at this point and pass marginal +EV situations for very favorable +EV situations?

Or, should you take every +EV situation and hope to win a number of races and hand out a few bad beats in order to win a tourney?

Please note this line of questioning does not apply to middle stages. I believe that taking just about every +EV gamble during the middle stages makes a lot of sense because you need to build that stack. I am reffering specifically to mid-late to late stages of a tourney.

My sense is that I am doing something right, but not completely. Thanks for your input.

[8Adam8]

Seems like you are playing well. The fact that you are recognizing the situations where you pick up chips in good spots is allowing you to go deeper in tournaments and then withstand a lost coinflip or a beat or a cooler or a hand that you would have to face regardless of whether you picked up the additional chips to survive it in the first place.

Also, its a good thing that you are being knocked out of tournaments making +EV shoves and re-steals. Thats how good players lose tournaments. Thats a good sign.

[LooseCaller]

it seems like you're just being results oriented. large fields have very top heavy payouts, you got this deep because of several earlier moves like this that were successful, chip accumulation is important, you have to get lucky to win, blah blah blah.

[MJBuddy]

Very results oriented. When you play the big EV moves and it works out, you end up hitting a FT with over 100x BB and wreck it (haha!).

[McMelchior]

I didn't read your examples.

Because I don't think there's any need for it.

Until the FT I don't believe any +EV should be passed up.

Obv. at the FT $EV <> cEV, and it's a different story. But IMHO you're just not getting there if you don't take all the edge you have. All of it ... basically because the diffence between a a good and a better player is marginal in terms of tournament EV.

Regarding your frustration over your results ...

a) variance is as we all know HUGE in MTT, and if you frequently make it to the final 2 - 3 tables you're going to get there sooner or later, and

b) there's no doubt your results will continue to improve (in that odd, "jagged" way where you feel your poker development is stuck on a plateau or even decreasing for a period, and then suddenly you discover you play much better in certain situations), and you'll find that your reading and your sense of the rythm of the game enables you to steer clear of disasters ...