Collapse of the American Economy?

[jtollison78]

I hedging... against the possibility that the American economy survives.

I tend to think hyperinflation is the more likely scenario for various reasons, but I haven't been able to get deflation out of my head completely. I haven't heard a good reason why debt default deflation cannot happen. The bankers would prefer that to outright hyperinflation I think because hyperinflation would largely be game over for them, but then again, banking is so political that I figure we'll get an inflationary scenario.

My strategy:

1) physical metals on hand (vs inflation and potential social collapse where they would likely be eventually useful as currency though food/bullets might make better currency at first.)
2) stocks - I think there's a good chance that we have a couple of good years before things fall. I'll probably get out of stocks if things hit 20k within 2-3 years.
3) bonds (and cash?) vs deflation
4) skills and tools: vs societal collapse secondary either to a straight economic collapse or to peak oil. Specifically, I started a garden this year for the first time, I went fishing the other day for the first time in 20 years, I've started stocking basic supplies(food, fuel w/stabilizer, ect...), I'm now looking at alternative sources of energy production, and I'm considering good retreat locations.

The thing with #4, I think it's hard to make an argument against increased self sufficiency. Even in most soft landing scenarios, I think taxes are going up in the future, so $ saved at the margin will make the time investment worthwhile for many.

John

[keikiwai]

having at least some precious gems seem better than metals, since gems take up less space (can cram a few tens of thousands of dollars or even a lot more into your pockets and run) and are easier to conceal

plus gem collecting is much more fun than metal collecting imo

[gonebroke2]

[ QUOTE ]
having at least some precious gems seem better than metals, since gems take up less space (can cram a few tens of thousands of dollars or even a lot more into your pockets and run) and are easier to conceal

plus gem collecting is much more fun than metal collecting imo

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If things get really bad, precious gems will be worthless. People will resort to what they have always resorted to during hard times and that is using gold and silver as a medium exchange.

[The4Aces]

GEMS would be impossible becuase barely anyone would know how to grade them. Also currently the GEM market is artifically set by a few business/faimlys in the world. The price of GEMs would plummet.

[Al P]

Everything is rosy - http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=14773

[DJSHAD0W]

[ QUOTE ]
Everything is rosy - http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=14773

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL... yeah, just turn on fox news and watch Bush and Cheney and their continous drumbeat of misinformation