Bankroll for Sunday Mill Sats

[BadgerPro]

I have never played the $39rs either but it seems to me a good strategy would be to play the rebuy period without double rebuying. I feel like if you get knocked out though it would be correct to rebuy back in since there will be a lot of dead money in the prizepool now.

At the break you always take the addon since you are getting more chips for the same price. I would think if you played enough of these this way you would usually be in for between 2-3 buyins. Meaning you have to win a seat more than 1/3 the time to make it profitable.

The other alternative would be to play it as a freezeout but take the addon whenever you make the break. Meaning you would have to win a seat a little less than 1/3 the time to make it profitable since your average buyin will be between 1-2 buyins.

Without doing any major amount of math behind it these two ways seem like the most logical.

[plzleenowhammy]

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Without doing any major amount of math behind it these two ways seem like the most logical.

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Yes.. but which is the most baller?

[kindling]

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I do double rebuy in regular speed satellites (except for the $39's). They give you a lot more time to outplay people so I think it's worth it. I also used to double rebuy in the $3's but I don't play them anymore, not worth it from a $/hr perspective.

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This surprised me. Can you explain why you think the $3R sat is not worth it from an hourly rate perspective? Both the $3R and the $39R pay a $215 seat. But the $3R is a turbo (lasts about 1.5 hrs). Since you're unlikely to spend more $39 in the $3R, it seems your profit per tourney is likely to be higher. Do you win a seat that much more often in a $39 or $39R to compensate for the longer (3+ hrs) duration?

[BadgerPro]

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Without doing any major amount of math behind it these two ways seem like the most logical.

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Yes.. but which is the most baller?

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Neither, always double rebuying and always adding on is obviously the most baller way to play these sats.

[Billy Bibbit]

McMelchior,

You can absolutely qualify in a 39R more than 1/3 of the time, I'd say I qualify more than half the time easily. Sometimes I have to rebuy once or twice though. I think not rebuying if you busted would be a mistake, because even if a rebuy is -EV in itself (which it is IMO) the add-on is +EV by such a huge amount that it's worth rebuying so that you can add on later.

My strategy isn't very complicated, I'm basically looking to get to 6K or 7K chips at which point I can fold my way in. Either by getting all-in PF with a big pair (I try to not get all-in with AK unless I really have to), or by making high probability blind steals from late position. The satellite is almost always over by the 300/600 level.

Kindling,

39R's don't really last longer than 2 hours because nearly half the field wins a seat. 39 freezeouts last 3+ hours. My average amount invested in a 39R is about $100 and my average return is about $120 although I've only played a few dozen of them so maybe I've just run hot in them so far. There's no way anyone is going to make an average profit of $20 in a 3R, or an 11R for that matter.

[Dawg24]

I played my first $39 rebuy last night and may have made a mistake...but qualified...

I did rebuy at the beginning because most did not...I felt this was a pretty big edge, and it proved to be as I was at 10k at the break and the next highest was 6k...I did not take add-on because there was 12 left and 6 got seats and I was chip leader (mistake?) ...

It was close in the end as I was 6th at one point...I was trying to maximize profit but should I have taken add on and just coast?

strat question...there was a player 2 to my left that kept going all in literally 75% of the time or more..since I felt I was going to get in anyway (most likely) is it best to ignore and let him do this or call with say 10/10+ or maybe AK AQs?

[bogey1]

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At the break you always take the addon since you are getting more chips for the same price.

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At the 39r's this isn't true. In smaller rebuys, you're still pretty far from the money, so the addon directly affects your chances.

In the 39r's, at the break you'll often have 40-60% of the players remaining making the money. If you're in the top 30% or so, or have already reached what will be the "average" number of chips needed at the end, then the addon is -EV. You're paying more for the addon than it increases your payout chances.

[McMelchior]

Thanks for the account, Billy.

According to OPR you have played 11 of the $39 rebuy sats and won 5 $215 seats plus an odd $73 one time. If you didn't rebuy or add-on that would be a net gain of $719 for and investment of $429 - whereas with one re-buy and one add-on per tourney you actually lost $73 ...

So ... depending on how much you've spent on rebuys and add-ons your results might be very impressive and absolutely respectable, or they might not; the issue is that they're still not quite statistically significant ... and I have to question whether you can draw such firm conclusion on such a small sample.

Anyway, I'll follow your strategy and take a few shots at the tournament to see if I can produce a +ROI.

[etown]

stick with the 8 dollar but personally i think the DS are the best satellite just multi table a few of them there
great br boosters as well