nl 200 - 88

[Spy Dog]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah and putting 200 in a pot of 20 w/ 35% euiqty is just flat out horrible. can't believe ppl are even considering shoving this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot isn't $20. Hero never folds in this spot, so if he check-calls, the pot is $60.

Pushing here is perfectly fine with a $60 pot and plenty of hand equity + fold equity.

This hand is well played and I play it the same if I call preflop.

[mythrilfox]

i really hate it when people post stuff and don't back their claims up.

assuming 35% equity vs. calling range, to turn a profit here we need to take the pot down...

(0.35*544.60 - 242.55)(1-x) + x*41 = 0
-51.94(1-x) + 41x = 0
92.94x = 51.94
x = 55.9% of the time

no way he calls more than that. we probably take it down on the flop at least 75% of the time i'd imagine.

basically for his calling range to be high enough to make this push not obviously profitable he'd have to start calling with stuff like AA no spade which we are actually a favorite against, and then our expectation would be even higher.

feel free to check my math.

not saying this is the highest expectation play but just that it's pretty obvious +EV and check/calling could be -EV if you are not playing exceptionally well.

[FinalPot]

i hate c/c too because you won't get extra $$ from worse hands if a 4th spade falls or even a J /6

[The White Rabbit]

yeah you're math is wrong, maybe start w/ the correct potsize when both all-in.

[ QUOTE ]
and check/calling could be -EV if you are not playing exceptionally well.

[/ QUOTE ]
Define "exceptionally well". I think it's a very clear +EV spot unless you start doing stuff like c/r AI blank turn, open shoving 4s turn, etc.

[mythrilfox]

what are you talking about, the final pot is $544.60

[The White Rabbit]

try again.

[mertzo]

505.5 is the potsize

[mythrilfox]

oh, converter screwed up. thanks for not being a royal [censored] douchebag and pointing that out.

(0.35*505.10 - 242.55)(1-x) + x*41 = 0
-65.765(1-x) + 41x = 0
106.765x = 65.765
x = 61.6% of the time

my reasoning still stands.

[kindju]

I definitely think b/3b ai is far better than crai on this flop but there is nothing wrong with a b/f. As pointed out our hand is not that strong. I don't like c/c because villain is passive and will probably never bet a hand we beat and there is no way in hell we're getting paid when we hit our draw by taking a passive line OOP.

[mertzo]

Didnt se his stats sry dudes.

c/c flop b/f blank turns seems really hot now