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#11
07-23-2007, 03:37 AM
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Re: wacho do her
[ QUOTE ]
I make it 48. I think your fe is huge given how the hand has played out coupled with your image. He folds AJ-, maybe AQ and his bluffs which is probably at least 10% given the action and his 20 agfactor. [/ QUOTE ] Why is raising to 48 better than shoving? 
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#14
07-23-2007, 04:04 AM
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Re: wacho do her
[ QUOTE ]
Where is the value in shoving I don't think that gains us any more fe, however you may disagree. Are you ever shoving your 2 pairs and sets here? [/ QUOTE ] I think you inadvertently answered a question I didn't even realize I asked. Let's say that 48 does indeed give us the same FE as a shove. Since you're obviously calling a shove, the EV appears to be the same, right? If he never calls, and only folds or shoves (a likely case, with an AF of 20), then the EV of each option is identical. However, your theoretical EV is increased if you make the same play with monster hands. So, if your shoving range includes sets, but your 48 range doesn't, then shoving is better, and vice versa. Anyway, I think where 48 differs from a shove, in terms of FE, is that 48 makes it more enticing for him to think he has FE over you, leading him to shove instead of fold. It's not a huge difference in terms of FE, I don't think. Another case for shoving is that there is some chance that he will get away from his hand if you hit the turn.
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#15
07-23-2007, 11:38 AM
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Re: wacho do her
fold!
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#16
07-23-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: wacho do her
Why not bet more on flop? Such a small bet is begging to be raised. I like bet-call, and am prepared to get it in on flop
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#17
07-23-2007, 01:11 PM
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Re: wacho do her
[ QUOTE ]
fold! [/ QUOTE ] Hero has 12 outs to (basically) the nuts. Folding is horrible. There's one point that hasn't been mentioned yet. If we flat call there's a chance that the donk-bettor will call too. This feeds dead money in the pot and increases our equity.
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