NL25 - flopped set facing an all in

volition · #1 07-23-2007, 10:26 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($33.83)
SB ($21.85)
BB ($49.76)
UTG ($18.98)
MP ($23.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75, MP calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2, MP folds.

Turn: ($7.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3.

River: ($13.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $43.75, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $13.10

I'm really regretting this fold, but at the time I was really scared of a flopped straight/overset. I just don't see him doing this without a hand that beats mine often, unless he had AK or AQ and just called all the way down. Maybe a random two pair?

So I guess hands that beat me: 55, KK, QQ, 67 and A2. Although, I'd rate the 67 and A2 as the more likely holdings here.

Villain is 17/2.63/1.89 over 156 hands if that helps.

So what do you guys think of my fold? Am I a hopeless nit? What do you think he has here?

firewall · #2 07-23-2007, 10:33 AM

fold here should be correct. I dont see villain shoving without a big hand. But there is a slight possibilty that he incorrectly think that u had a pair because of your "weak" bet on the turn . Maybe in this situations u should bet between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot to have a better judgement.

tms · #3 07-23-2007, 10:37 AM

Yes this is way too nitty. I'm never folding that river. Bet more on the turn, around $5. Call all in on the river.

edit: You missed a limper pf. Make it $1.25.

reef2287 · #4 07-23-2007, 10:37 AM

wrong wrong wrong, if he has kk or qq hes not betting that much on the river, it looks to me as he has kq or missed flush, he never reraised you and the flop texture is poor, so he rarely believes you hit it-- please please please call and fistpump

monkover · #5 07-23-2007, 10:38 AM

fold should be fine. you´re only getting 3-2

maccamack · #6 07-23-2007, 10:48 AM

Read on villian is needed here. If he is a moron you can't call, if he is solid you probably can. I call because I call too much and villians line doesn't make much sense. I put him on two pair ... BTW - your turn bet is pretty bad. Bet a minimum of $6.

volition · #7 07-23-2007, 11:03 AM

Thanks for the input, I appreciate it. I agree that I should have bet more on the turn, probably $6 or $7, and probably should have made the call on the river. I think betting more on the turn would have made it easier for me to call on the river too, with more in the pot.

corsakh · #8 07-23-2007, 11:04 AM

Free money, free money.. Alert, free money

Johnny2Gunnz · #9 07-23-2007, 11:15 AM

Bet more preflop, bet more on the turn.

I am never folding on this river.

Go_BroKe · #10 07-23-2007, 11:27 AM

INSTACALL!