QQ facing strong raise from the BB preflop

[canavarr]

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If you don't hit your set villain will almost always see the turn card too, hence increasing his chance to hit A or K. you are way behind AA,KK. I don't know how much you can extract JJ, TT here. It should be more than you pay to AA, KK to make this a call, which is unlikely. I'd play this for set value if we were deep. but just fold here..sorry...

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

There is 6 in the pot and it's 6 to call. If you *knew* that his range was only {QQ+,AK}, then yeah, maybe you could fold. With no reads, you just can't narrow it down that tight. If you wanted to keep it as tight as JJ, then you still have to call for current pot odds.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 164644764 5675268.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 183588540 5675268.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

You might argue that you are only getting 1:1, when you actually need 1.11:1. I think you make up for that difference by the fact that QQ is *not* in your folding range here. If you are squeezed one less time when you raise with a hand like AJs or 88, then that extra 2.6% equity deficit is worth it.

On top of all that, you will sometimes win when an A flops, or the board develops in some other frightening way so as to give you a good bluffing opportunity (slim, but certainly greater than 2.6%, I should think).

Even though I think his 3-betting range is wider than {JJ+,AK}, I think that you can reasonably expect to make up a 2.6% equity deficit through position and postflop play.

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It is not only how OFTEN you win but how MUCH you win. If I win say 5 bucks against JJ, but lose 10 bucks against KK. It is no good.

[ton1]

I don't see any other hand than flopped set I could stack the villain holding KK/AA. Instead I see bunch of possibilities to lose my.

[shoxbb6]

You'll have position on the 3bettor, he can still do this w/ JJ+,AK, makes it an easy call.

[dhdell]

~

[dhdell]

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i would just fold here against an unknown. 4bet is out of the question. so lets see what happens when you call. Here villain will bet flop %95 of the time.
1) an A or K will flop %43 of the time, and you will be forced to fold your hand against a cbet.
2) no A,K will flop %57 of the time. you won't be able to earn too much against AK (only the current pot + his cbet), but loose a lot against AA, KK.
3) you will flop a set 1-to-8. but you have to double up whenever you hit a set. (why? you have to call another $6 preflop, pot is $12. so you have to earn an extra 6*8-12=$36 every time you flop a set. your remaning stack will be $41 after the call. there is also a chance that villain will not pay you off when you hit a set, or outdraw you).
so I'd fold!!!

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I definetely agree. Calling just brings more problems on flop.

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vomit all around these comments

[swainy]

Its a real tough spot. You raised UTG, so the BB must be putting you on a big hand. Therefore, it is reasonable to fold here.
However, with only two hands that have you beat, its tough to fold here. Most of the time, I would want to see a flop when I'm in position and re-evaluate the situation then. If it comes low you are probably going to play for all your chips. Maybe you could call a c/bet on flop, but if he fires on a blank turn you may have to fold.
However, the fact that you raised UTG suggests the BB has a hand that beats you....

[canavarr]

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i would just fold here against an unknown. 4bet is out of the question. so lets see what happens when you call. Here villain will bet flop %95 of the time.
1) an A or K will flop %43 of the time, and you will be forced to fold your hand against a cbet.
2) no A,K will flop %57 of the time. you won't be able to earn too much against AK (only the current pot + his cbet), but loose a lot against AA, KK.
3) you will flop a set 1-to-8. but you have to double up whenever you hit a set. (why? you have to call another $6 preflop, pot is $12. so you have to earn an extra 6*8-12=$36 every time you flop a set. your remaning stack will be $41 after the call. there is also a chance that villain will not pay you off when you hit a set, or outdraw you).
so I'd fold!!!

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I definetely agree. Calling just brings more problems on flop.

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vomit all around these comments

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yeah you are tough you never ever fold QQ, we are just weak...