Another raised on the turn hand

jeanbaptiste36 · #1 07-22-2007, 07:07 PM

Villain is 15/8/1.91 over 100 hands.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero...

marchron · #2 07-22-2007, 07:50 PM

Fold. Am I missing something?

Big Folder · #3 07-22-2007, 08:13 PM

I think I fold. Villian looks pretty tight and not aggressive enough to be raising you here with a worse hand. I dont think he was sitting around with a lone ace, but Ax[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] seems likely.

Big Folder · #4 07-22-2007, 08:15 PM

forgot to add that 33 and 66 is in his range. So is a3s.

I don't think he's raising here with 77-88 either because he should be as afraid of that ace as you are because of your preflop raise and c-bet. Seems like there are too many ways to lose here.

jeanbaptiste36 · #5 07-23-2007, 06:26 PM

Good you agree with myself when reviewing the hand. In the hand I called down of course [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I get 9-1 on the turn but the board is already paired so many of the good scenarios are gone.

I'm just wondering in SSHE on a less scary board, they say to call down because you have 4-5 outs in this situation. But if you call down you must call one one the river too. Doesn't that cut your odds in half and make the turn a fold even if you have the 11BB+ pot for calling one on the turn.

NIX · #6 07-23-2007, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good you agree with myself when reviewing the hand. In the hand I called down of course [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I get 9-1 on the turn but the board is already paired so many of the good scenarios are gone.

I'm just wondering in SSHE on a less scary board, they say to call down because you have 4-5 outs in this situation. But if you call down you must call one one the river too. Doesn't that cut your odds in half and make the turn a fold even if you have the 11BB+ pot for calling one on the turn.

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If you are sure you're beat now and know you have 4 live outs, I'd call the turn and fold the river if I don't hit. You can probably get one more bet at least out of your opponent if you improve with implied odds. If you don't improve, you can fold. You're behind, so you're just treating it like any normal draw. And if you are quite sure you're behind, there is no reason to call a river bet, so you don't have to consider that in the cost of drawing, only the reward if you improve and your opponent pays you off. You only want to add in the cost of paying a river bet if you decide on the turn that you're gonna show the hand down.

The problem with that thinking in this hand is that you pretty much only have 2 outs if behind, so you don't have odds to draw.

jeanbaptiste36 · #7 07-23-2007, 07:19 PM

Then I just clung too hard to this "always call one bet on the river HU if pot 10BB+"-rule.

NIX · #8 07-23-2007, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then I just clung too hard to this "always call one bet on the river HU if pot 10BB+"-rule.

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It's a decent rule, but you also have to consider how often you're actually ahead and how the pot got that big. For example, if you and an opponent got into a raising war preflop and on the flop and the board is all small cards, then yes, you should call a river bet with QQ since Villain may have had JJ or TT. On the other hand, if you have QQ as an overpair on the flop, but an ace and king come on the turn and river and a flush draw got there and you bet the river and got raised, it's only one bet, but it's pretty likely you're in real bad shape and can probably fold.

jeanbaptiste36 · #9 07-23-2007, 07:36 PM

I'm getting 5 to 1 on the call-down. Must win 16% to break even. 4% for the full-house-draw. They really bluff less than 12% here with an AG of 1.9?

Buzz-cp · #10 07-23-2007, 08:22 PM

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Fold. Am I missing something?

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yeah this is an A or 3, 99% of the time. If it's a bluff, it's pretty darn expert.