NL 5 A good push with outs?

[rjacobs003]

Thanks for all the comments. Some mixed messages but it seems the jury has swung in favour of just calling this raise. I've found myself in this kind of situation quite a bit lately and I've tended to be over-aggressive a lot of the time. To take that play a bit further, what's your play if it gets pushed behind me and (a) UTG follws it in or (b) UTG folds?

[jessyj07]

If you just call the turn and button pushes and utg folds...you will be getting 2.03:1 to call which is not enough because you are 2.1:1 to hit, so it's very slightly -ev. If UTG calls this is an instacall.

[rjacobs003]

Ok makes good sense. So the reason the original push is incorrect would be firstly, I need fold equity - which I'm not getting since its so unlikely that both villians will fold OR I need implied odds which I only get if I'm certain both will call? Am I understanding that correctly?

[jessyj07]

Your push is bad because you're trying to semibluff. By definition a semibluff has 2 ways of working by either getting your opponent(s) to fold now or to improve to the best hand when you get called.

In this hand, once somebody overbets the pot it is just so unlikely that he is folding to a push that it's not worth it because you're essentially bluffing with a draw and not semibluffing. You don't have direct odds to call but you have implied odds here because it's very unlikely that he's going to c/f the river just because it's a club or ten or 6.

[mvdgaag]

If you call the turn and a club comes you are playing for stacks with a T high flush?
If you catch your straight will he pay you off if he was on the FD?

You have less outs than most people here seem to think... 3 tens that are likely not to be good. What if a T comes? Are you playing for stacks? I'll be optimistic and count 1

9 clubs to a T high flush draw. It is unlikely, but possible someone might have a better flushdraw I count 8..

Your straight is good, but you can only count 6 outs for it as two are clubs and have already been accounted for.
I count 6

An estimate of 15 (partial) outs with one card to come... that is around 2:1 so I don't think you have the odds or the FE to push here...

Mostly you push draws on the flop to ensure you get to see both cards. If you just call it is very easy to put you on a draw and your odds on the turn are a lot worse. If you call/raise you are putting in more money than you'd like without a hand and still have a difficult decision on the turn. In that case, given the proper odds (combined with FE) you should push.

In this case there is just one card to come. If all your 18 outs are good you have a push (most likely to break even in the long run, but certainly adds variance and possibly tilt), but they are not a lot of the time. Since his bet is very large I don't put him on a bigger flush. I might call on implied odds if I know he'll stack off most of the time when I hit.

[rjacobs003]

Ok got it. Nice thread guys thanks for the advice.