Deceptively Interesting River Decision

[Usagi_yo]

I'm going to think this through with my poker thinking process and write it down. Comments welcome.

1. (pre-flop) AQs, nice hand, out of position (SB), facing a raise from TAG player. Am I raising to re-steal or do I think I have the better hand here? I think I'm raising to re-steal and or thinking that I'm raising a hand that has a good chance of being two overcards to villians PP.

2. (post flop) Villian didn't re-raise pre-flop. I can discount AA most of the time now. I continue on with a follow thru bet and get called. This flat calls to me means my opponant is likely to have a hand that can either complete with 1 card, or is of sufficient strength to hold up on its own, and or can actually be a monster.

3. (Turn) Top card on the board pairs. And I check and villian checks. Had I bet, I think I might have gotten more information, or won the pot right there. Instead it looks like somebody is afraid to bet and the other player is glad of it. That combined with the pre-flop flat call, the post flop flat call spells out to me a draw of some sort at least. Does opponant have AQs? AsKx, QQ? A9s? QJS (we don't know the river card yet) AsJx? or is he super slowplaying KK?

4. (River) I make straight, but 3rd spade hits and the board is paired. I'm out of position and my opponant was likely on a draw. Right now I'm thinking what hands can I extract a value bet from and for how much. Hands like AA, QQ, even QJo. What hands are my opponant going to raise my value bet with? KJ, AsQs, KK and perhaps KT, K9. What hands that beat me is my opponant just going to call with? TT, 99, KT, K9. What hands that I beat is my opponant likely to value bet with? AK, AQo (tie), QJo, AA.

5. In the end, I'm going to decide to value bet from 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. Perhaps $175. I'm going to fold to any raise. But on some days I will say that I will check call a seemingly apparant value bet from an opponant, and fold if my opponant is make overbets or pot sized bets on the river here.