NL25 Sanity Check: Nut Flush draw all-in on flop for fold equity

[automaton_22]

Is this a maniac play?
Or is my reasoning sound: I more than likely even money if he calls, and have a whole lot of fold equity.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $41.05
CO: $57.85
Hero: $49.20
SB: $83.10
BB: $49.33

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1.25</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($10.85, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $8.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $45.7</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $102.25

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
: I am close to even money if he calls, even if he flopped trips,

[/ QUOTE ] No, you're not. You should fold, it's pretty obvious he has an 8 or 44. I seriously doubt he's leading like this with 77 and 99+ makes no sense at all.

pokenum -h ad qd - 8s 7s -- 8d 8c 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c 8d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 250 25.25 740 74.75 0 0.00 0.253
8s 7s 740 74.75 250 25.25 0 0.00 0.747

[Bastian]

Correct me if Im wrong. I think its fine. Just pot it though.

EDIT: what are his stats? I mean, retards call with JJ+ here PF.

[shoxbb6]

Raise more preflop. Lead flop. Once you check the flop, you have to crai

[automaton_22]

Thanks, that seems to be the case.
What would the situation be if the board was not paired?

8d 6h 4d?

In this situation would the push all-in be +ev, given fold equity?

[Bastian]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more preflop. Lead flop. Once you check the flop, you have to crai

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't check flop

[jessyj07]

.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise more preflop. Lead flop. Once you check the flop, you have to crai

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't check flop

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops, still like pushing though

[automaton_22]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if Im wrong. I think its fine. Just pot it though.

*(EDIT: what are his stats? I mean, retards call with JJ+ here PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

So all-in here is going too far, a better bet would be pot sized? Isn't there far more fold equity with the all in given the size of the stacks?

It seems to me this situation arises quite often, and I really am thinking I can induce a fold alot of the time, and (if the board unpaired) looking at probable coin-flip.

(His stats? borderline maniac, 60%+ vpip with high agression, he actually did have JJ).

(Also - Shocks - I was on the button, facing a large bet, checking / leading not an option)/

[Gelford]

I like this and think that the above posters have no clue


The thing is, you are in fine shape and what all of you fail to notice, is that you don't need no freaking fold equity to get it in the middle, that is just an added bonus ! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(for crying out loud .... don't be nits)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,487,152 games 0.271 secs 23,937,830 games/sec

Board: 8d 8h 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.256% 35.76% 02.49% 2319907 161792.67 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 32.066% 29.99% 02.08% 1945481 134677.67 { 88+, 44, ATs+, KQs, 98s, 87s, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 29.679% 28.17% 01.51% 1827324 97969.67 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, 98s, 87s, AQo+, KQo }


---

(I've only added the two SCs that hit the 8, just to make it worse and I've made UTG very nitty)