Observations from Official Poker Rankings

[the alex]

I was amazing shocked tofind myself in the top 0.15%. I've seen a ton of super low ROI's in the top 10%.

Makes you realize how many dgenz stay on the handicapped horse.

[PoineDexter]

I never know when guys are serious with their posts or just flaming the OP but if anyone looks at some of the stats on the website and it helps them adjust their game (and or lifestyle) that must be a good thing.

For example. Look through guys that have negative profit. You only have to get to 21% of the field to find these guys. It always says <$0 or something like that for "profit" (it never lists the figure) but it does indicate "prizes". So multiply the number of games played by ABI and subtract the prizes and you can approximate the losses. I see guys playing like 1000 games in 120 days with ABI of $20 and prize totals of $12,000.

$8K is a lot to dump in three months. Then again their luck is bound to change, right?

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems we're thinking the same way. It's refreshing to be in a thread and not get flamed but I get the feeling it's coming.

Obviously the stats can be skewed, exaggerated or mis-interpreted. You get a guy on page one who has a 5000% ROI to find he entered 10 tourneys and won one big one for a $1,000,000 payout (check out "area23JC").

But...

If you want to make money you need to play bigger $$$ games. To play bigger $$$ games you need (or should have) a big enough bankroll to deal with the inevitable variance. Even the best players don't cash in 85% of the games they play (maybe there are people who are in the top % in terms of skill and are also lucky enough that they ITM the first 15 and lose the next 85!!).

If you look at the centre portion of the bell curve and ignore the outliers it seems a tough row to hoe (making a living).

As to BarryLyndon... obviously the percentile figure means (censored) but values such as "prizes won", "profit", ABI and number of games played are real numbers that are fun to play with.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a flame is coming it isn't from me. Your conclusion is right. As some pro said, maybe Doyle Brunson, "it's a tough way to make an easy living." That goes for most professions with the possibility of making a [censored] load of money. Most are just grinding out a living.

Regarding the percentile numbers, mine is 99.84% (brag). But I view the percentile rankings as BS (beat). (There is a recent thread in MMTc that discusses these if you're interested.) I don't see myself as being an elite poker player, just better than lots of the bad players out there. My avg buy-in is well below the $100+ thresehold you mention ($31). Yet if I analyze my 120 day results from OPR, double the number of tournaments (to about 300/month), and extrapolate profit into a yearly amount it turns out that it would be a decent living. In fact it's pretty close to my actual salary at the day job. I'm nothing special as a poker player and may just be on the good side of variance. The reality is that most poker players will be net losers, but I still believe that if someone wants to play for a living they should be able to make it work if they have reasonable intelligence and the right work ethic. If they don't then they'll have a tough time in whatever they do.

[PoineDexter]

I agree that the percentile figure is bull. I played 1 tournament and won, what's my percentile? Extreme example.

This is exactly what I need. Real people with real numbers.

Here are some questions (if I may):

1) are your 120 day numbers consistent with your overall results (say in the past year)?
2) do you multi table?
3) I won't ask you what you think a decent living is (yet!)

Also, you say most poker players are net losers. Very true. Do they quit? Doesn't seem so!!! LOL

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the percentile figure is bull. I played 1 tournament and won, what's my percentile? Extreme example.

This is exactly what I need. Real people with real numbers.

Here are some questions (if I may):

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not.

[ QUOTE ]

1) are your 120 day numbers consistent with your overall results (say in the past year)?

[/ QUOTE ]

More or less. I compared the 120 day number to those for both year to date and the full tracking period (from Oct 2006). My ITM% is very consistent (actually marginally lower for 120 day). My 120 day ROI is higher by about 10% and YTD is lower by about 10% than for the full tracking period. Sample size for full tracking period is roughly 1500 tournaments ranging from 2 table/sats to fields of 3K plus. My buy-in has significantly increased (full tracking is $20 vs $33 for 120 day) so my raw profit numbers are also not consistent.

[ QUOTE ]
2) do you multi table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll frequently be playing in 2 tournaments at a time. I'll take shots at satelliting into larger buy-ins. If I'm successful and playing one of those I'll normally be giving it my full attention. In rare situations I'll be in 3 tournaments at once.

[ QUOTE ]
3) I won't ask you what you think a decent living is (yet!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Without telling you what I make I'll point you to this Wikipedia entry. This looks at household incomes, etc from every direction. The median household income in the US in 2005 for all households was just over 46k. Presumably this means that 1/2 the households in the US would, if not consider this decent, at least see it as better than what they make now. This number is significantly less than what I consider decent.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, you say most poker players are net losers. Very true. Do they quit? Doesn't seem so!!! LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Some do, some don't. For a large number (probably the majority) of players poker is entertainment. As long as their losses don't exceed their entertainment budget it isn't a problem for anyone and they aren't going to quit. Some delude themself into thinking they're winners (or haven't lost as much as they really have) same as with people who play slots, roulette, craps, or whatever in casinos.

[PoineDexter]

So to summarize:

ITM consistent
ROI consistent
ABI $25
1500 tourneys, mostly two tableing
For arguments sake we'll call a "decent living" $36K (3K/month)

Without giving it away would you say a solid ITM is 20% and ROI 50%? If not throw out some ballpark figures.

Eventually I want to talk further about the last statement because this is one of the things I'm trying to get at with this thread. How many do you think play for entertainment AND stay within a reasonable budget and how many delude themselves? 400,000 MTT players lose money. Can they afford it?

[BigAlK]

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Without giving it away would you say a solid ITM is 20% and ROI 50%? If not throw out some ballpark figures.

[/ QUOTE ]

My numbers meet or exceed these figures looking at any of the 3 periods we discussed. If I were to look at them on a month by month basis they were vary drasticly from those (negative ROI some months, pushing 200% in others). I think you're in the right ballpark.

[ QUOTE ]
Eventually I want to talk further about the last statement because this is one of the things I'm trying to get at with this thread. How many do you think play for entertainment AND stay within a reasonable budget and how many delude themselves? 400,000 MTT players lose money. Can they afford it?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's hard to know. I think it's like lots of other things that are potentially addictive (alcohol, cigarettes, drugs, religion). Some people keep things under control, others don't. Some are more addictive than others. IMO addiction to poker and/or gambling is lower on the scale of addictiveness - closer to alcohol than heroin. But somebody may have numbers that refute that.

[PoineDexter]

Hello,

Just reading the tread you referred to in MMTc (the one started by baltostar?). I think he is on the same track as me in my questioning.

So...

100% ROI is solid (Shaundeeb agrees). Rizen says each tournament takes 1.5 - 2 hrs on average. So at 100% ROI you need to spend 3K to make 3K per month, right (when I say "you" I mean the proverbial "you"). You need to play 100 $30.00 tournaments. So if you two table on average it's 50 tournaments at 1.5 - 2hrs per (say 100hrs). That looks like 3 to 3.5 hrs per day?

Those figures seem right to you?

I'm not using you as a direct example I just want to do some math with some real ROI's, ABI's and tournaments/month.

Does anyone else agree or disagree with the ROI, ITM, etc?

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

Just reading the tread you referred to in MMTc (the one started by baltostar?). I think he is on the same track as me in my questioning.

So...

100% ROI is solid (Shaundeeb agrees). Rizen says each tournament takes 1.5 - 2 hrs on average. So at 100% ROI you need to spend 3K to make 3K per month, right (when I say "you" I mean the proverbial "you"). You need to play 100 $30.00 tournaments. So if you two table on average it's 50 tournaments at 1.5 - 2hrs per (say 100hrs). That looks like 3 to 3.5 hrs per day?

Those figures seem right to you?

I'm not using you as a direct example I just want to do some math with some real ROI's, ABI's and tournaments/month.

Does anyone else agree or disagree with the ROI, ITM, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

The one I was referring to is this one, started by BigBiceps. But I did read the one you're referring to.

Shaundeeb and Rizen are much better sources than me for this. I think 100% ROI or higher is solid to very good, but I fall short of that over everything but random shorter periods (some months). The FAQ talks a bit about his. There they say anything positive is good (obv).

Rizen's 1.5 - 2 hours per tournament is a good number. Part of this is dependent on structure and field size. Higher buy-in generally means smaller field, but (sometimes) a better (slower) structure and more chips. Most mid-buy-in tournaments with fields of 300-1200 last 4-6 hours in my experience with roughly 1/2 the field being eliminated in the first hour. That seems to be consistent with Rizen's estimate.

[PoineDexter]

Good, good, we're turning assumptions into something more concrete. I guess nobody else gives a rats a** or cares to refute so onwards we go.

To make a $36K living at MTT poker (no other sources of income ie. live games, cash games, the ponies or a career) we can say that the minimum required is:

1) 100%ROI
2) ABI around $30.00
3) 100 games per month
4) 3-3.5 hrs per day
5) 2 tables running on average

Obviously we can increase or decrease any of these to achieve the same result ie. 50% ROI and 200 gpm

Agree? Comments?