have I been playing my flush draws wrong

[MrGladstone]

OK, I think I proved to myself why the flush comes in more often...I think it is similar to the Monte Hall type problem. I was assuming that since you always pick up 3 more outs on the turn for the trip draw (to full house/quads) you could effectively say you have 10 outs for the hand from the flop on. But even though you always pick up the extra outs, they don't come into play until the turn, if that makes sense.

So on the flop the trips have 7 outs to improve by the TURN. The flush draw has 9. The trips pick up 3 more outs on the turn.

Thus using the rules of 4 and two I calculate for the flush draw:

% win = 9 outs * 4% = 36%.

For the trips, 7 outs can improve on the flop or river:
% win for 7 outs = 7 x 4 = 28%. The trips pick up 3 outs on the turn for 3 x 2% (e.g, and additional 6%). So using these rough calclulations the trips would improve 28 + 6 = 34 % of the time (vs the previously calculated 36% for the flush draw).

I feel better now.

[Catt]

Lots of folks are exploring the decision to call the all-in with your nut flush draw -- I'm not going to add any comment to that discussion. I just wanted to point out something else in your posts that I think is very important to becoming a better player.

[ QUOTE ]
I am still confused. Lets go over a real hand example that happend day before yesterday.

[. . .]

I put SB on K-8 for 2 pair, MP1 is loose and can have anything.

[. . .]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a big mistake in your thought process to somehow narrow SB's likely hand range to K8; I also think it's a big mistake to conclude that MP can have anything because he's loose -- he just put in 2 buy-ins. A big key to playing solid poker is to start thinking in terms of hand ranges, start understanding through repetition and study how those predicted hand ranges, in the aggregate, compare to your hand and other opponents' hand ranges, and how all that in turn relates to your immediate decision. Narrowing the aggressor in a hand to a likely single hand (and only 9 combos given the flop) after some unremarkable pre-flop action, and concluding that the other player in the hand could have anything despite the amount of money invested in this one hand seems to highlight an area of your game that you would be well served to devote more attention and study. Nail down your concerns / confusion on how to calculate odds (immediate, implied, effective) on the flop with a FD, but then invest some time on the mechanics of hand reading and range evaluation -- the later will permit you to make sharper decisions post flop in hand after hand once the pot / implied odds calcs become absolutely second nature to you (so much so that they require comparatively less brain power).

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

flop(90$): Kh-8h-2s

BB bets 50, MP1 calls, Hero calls with nutflush draw, SB checkraises all in for 1000, BB folds, MP1 calls 800,
Hero ??

I have to put my whole stack ie 450 in to win 1140 (90$ preflop+ 150 flop action before allin raise + 900 by 2 all in players)

[/ QUOTE ]
$200 went in on the flop before the push. The BB, MP1, Hero, and SB put in $50 to match the BB's bet before the SB's raise. So you risk $450 to get back $1190+$450.

You need to win 27.4% to justify a call. You should easily win that much, since you can't be sure you are up against a set. You can win with a flush, running two pair or trips, and you might only need to catch an ace, though that possibility should be discounted given the action.