QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK

[knockonwood]

check raising the flop with the OESD and overs is always good. Very likley to be behind on the river but you may be good 1/12 i guess.

[JerBear77]

*grunch*

I tend to lead out here w/ 4 players on the flop. Would you really mind if the PFR raises and makes your Q and J outs clean?? This starts to build the pot up plus masks your hand when you hit it. The rest of the hand plays differently from here.

TWIWP, raise the turn and make MP1 define his hand, good chance you will knock him out and you still have 8 outs to your st8. As played I would call this down from here, but I think you missed a raise on the turn.

[NIX]

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I tend to lead out here w/ 4 players on the flop. Would you really mind if the PFR raises and makes your Q and J outs clean?? This starts to build the pot up plus masks your hand when you hit it. The rest of the hand plays differently from here.

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If the PFRer raises, your Q and J outs may not be outs. Without a read he'll raise AK if we donk into him, I'd prefer to not bet and let him raise his JJ+ killing our equity.

It could get really ugly if we donk the flop, PFRer raises with KK or something getting it HU. Then on the J turn, we check/raise only to put a lot of money in while behind.

[bozlax]

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O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

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Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop->turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop->turn and the % you'll hit turn->river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop->river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

[Maxinho]

raise flop to gain outs and/or value

[Xhad]

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If the PFRer raises, your Q and J outs may not be outs. Without a read he'll raise AK if we donk into him, I'd prefer to not bet and let him raise his JJ+ killing our equity.

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Even we were certain AK and will raise with it we don't gain much by protecting our crappy pair outs in a pot this small when we could be getting value on our nut draw.

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raise flop to gain outs and/or value

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If anyone folds to your c/r it's because PFR 3bet and your pair outs are now worth dick.

[shuinthehouse]

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O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

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Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop->turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop->turn and the % you'll hit turn->river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop->river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

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Boz is right, but if you don't get it, for some people a more intuitive thought process is you don't add the probabilities of the two events (hitting on the turn or river) together because you have to discount the probability you hit them both, i.e. the union of the probabilities.

Thus: (8/47) + (8/46) - ((8/47)*(8/46)) = 31.45%

[FineStyle]

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O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop->turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop->turn and the % you'll hit turn->river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop->river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

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I calculated the odd like that. I just converted it to percentage, which of course is not worthwile while sitting at the table.

Thanx for correcting my error on the combined probability.

[bozlax]

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I just converted it to percentage, which of course is not worthwile while sitting at the table.

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Depending on how you think, percentages or odds are equally valid. Just remember to add the 1 back in when going from odds -> percentages.

[unzip]

I have to admit that raising the flop didn't cross my mind not only during the hand but even while posting it here (I thought I need 6 players to raise on the flop as I had 17% chance of improving on the turn). While raising for free card with OESD (and other draws) is something I do regularly, I feel that I might have missed many raises for value while being OOP with draws after reading replies here. Thanks as I look forward to fix this possible leak in my play.