Observations from Official Poker Rankings

[PoineDexter]

I'm sure everyone has seen http://www.officialpokerrankings.com but I was poking around at this site and made some observations. While it is probable that online players play other games (STT and cash) so perhaps people profit from a mix of games but if you think you're good enough to make a living as an MTT pro this is a fun site to noodle around! This site reports the past 120 days so you could argue the sample is small but it is what it is.

1) 80% of MMT players have -ROI
2) of the 20% with +ROI about 90% of these profit less than $750.00 per month
3) top winners play about 100-200 games per month
4) the average buy-in for these players is >$100.00
5) most of the page one guys ITM 15-20%

Obviously you must be a good player AND you need a HUGE bankroll to survive the variance.

I have more but would like to see some comments especially from the 1% of players who make a living on the MTT's.

[NateAvenson]

I've spent a fair amount of time at the site and I have made the same observations. But I decided to persue a professional MTT career anyway. There is only one observation that I think you are a little off on: That you have to have a huge bankroll to survive the varience. I started with a bankroll of $0 and have built that up to $448 today. It was at $850 at its peak, but there is a bitch out there named variance. The key to beating variance is not a huge bankroll, but rather good bankroll management. I try to invest 1% or less of my BR into a tournament, but I will occassionally go above that if I think there is a good enough reason (overlay/satelite etc.)
If you are indeed a wining tournament player, your BR will continue to grow until you can afford to play bigger and bigger tournaments.

Here's a few additional comments on your observations.

1) Most players have bad BR management and are just trying to score a big win. While there are a lot of good poker players out there, MTT's are a different sort of game. Players need to focus on making final tables and even more importantly top 3 finishes. Most players focus on making the money. Bubble play is what seperates the great from the many.

2) with 500K plus players ranked, this top 2% is actually 10,000 players. But if you want to make a living playing MTT's you definately need to find yourself in this top 2%. If you can play as well as these players at the lower limits, it will only be a matter of time before you are playing with them in the bigger tournaments and in the top 2%.

3)This is an absolute necessity. If you are playing lower limits you should be playing more. I've logged 125 this month, a little lite, but it's summer and I have been spending time outside. In the winter 300+ will be standard. If you are making a living at it, it sho0uld reflect actual work. But you should also be able to retire early.

4)I addressed this in #1 but I think for most of these players, they would like to see this number higher. $100 is prob less than 1% of there roll. Obv I guess. But there are only so many $100+ buyins a day.

5) This is an important stat. I think most of these players will tell you that they bust either just before the bubble or make it very deep. That's because they are playing to make the FT while others who have 20% of their roll on the line are just trying to make the money. The latter can easily have ITM %'s over 20%. But they will make few FT's because they are not getting aggro enough at the bubble. Actually they probably tighten up at the bubble. HUGE mistake.

[PoineDexter]

OK, great feedback. You are the type of person I want to hear from as well.

Comment on these points:

1) you enter tournaments with a BR of 100 buy-ins which is the benchmark most good players seem to use. So I assume you are entering $3.00 + 0.30 or $5.00 + 0.50 right now?

2) you intend to play 200 - 300 tournaments a month?

3) how many hours does 300 tournaments take? Do you multi table? How many?

4) what would you consider a successful ROI?

[BigAlK]

I think this site is a treasure of data to be studied, intepreted, and mis-interpreted to our hearts content. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I've got a few comments to add.

1) Nate's comment #2 above is an important one. That's a lot of people. In reality this probably isn't 10,000 people because the top players play on multiple sites and would be double counted. However that also means that the high end may actually be higher than what you'll see and some of the marginally profitable may actually be reasonably profitable due to marginal profits on multiple sites.

2) Lots of people play a minimal numbers of tournaments without significant cashs and don't come back or rarely come back. A large number of the bottom 30% are these people. They aren't dedicated to improving their game, play infrequently for recreation, etc. This makes it look like the odds are against you more than reality if you're willing to work at getting better. (This isn't to say that the odds aren't against you, just not as much as it appears.)

3) Some winning players who are primarily cash game players may also take an occaisional shot at a tournament. This has the same kind of impact as #2.

4) The same goes for people who mostly play live, but sometimes play on-line. Depending on recent luck the small sample size might lead you to believe the player is a loser when in reality they aren't. (Try looking up the records for some of the Full Tilt pros and you'll see what I mean.)

[PoineDexter]

Of course this is all interpretation/fun with stats stuff.

I looked at a ton of data and messed with the numbers. I then took a few bad beats in a couple of 2 table MTT's and swore off poker (forever). I even threw out ALL my stats, data and online bookmarks. I started playing again a few weeks later of course but wish I still had the info I mined from the site!! lol

Anyway....

Can we agree that:

Only a small percent make any significant money on a regular basis from MTT's?

Playing several hundred games per month of online MTT's (as many of these players do) has to take a major chunk of time.

Most all of the players on page one play $100.00 ABI or greater.
----------------------------
The site is fun to noodle around with is it not?

[NoahL]

I agre with the bubble play. In every tournament on the bubble, you can see who is happy with mking the money and who wants to get a serious stack. Of my 308 tournaments ive played since february, I've busted close to the bubble 80% of the times I've busted not in the money.

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course this is all interpretation/fun with stats stuff.

I looked at a ton of data and messed with the numbers. I then took a few bad beats in a couple of 2 table MTT's and swore off poker (forever). I even threw out ALL my stats, data and online bookmarks. I started playing again a few weeks later of course but wish I still had the info I mined from the site!! lol

Anyway....

Can we agree that:

Only a small percent make any significant money on a regular basis from MTT's?

Playing several hundred games per month of online MTT's (as many of these players do) has to take a major chunk of time.

Most all of the players on page one play $100.00 ABI or greater.
----------------------------
The site is fun to noodle around with is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I absolutely agree with all of that. My point (if I had one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) is that the conclusion most people would come to from these facts might be wrong or at least exaggerated.

I believe, but can't prove, that it is possible for anyone of reasonable intelligent who truly wants to become a winning MTTer to do so. Yes, this takes time and dedication. Just like rising to the top of any endeavor.

[BarryLyndon]

Wowwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeee, I'm in the 98th percentile! [censored]' A.

Barry

[PoineDexter]

It seems we're thinking the same way. It's refreshing to be in a thread and not get flamed but I get the feeling it's coming.

Obviously the stats can be skewed, exaggerated or mis-interpreted. You get a guy on page one who has a 5000% ROI to find he entered 10 tourneys and won one big one for a $1,000,000 payout (check out "area23JC").

But...

If you want to make money you need to play bigger $$$ games. To play bigger $$$ games you need (or should have) a big enough bankroll to deal with the inevitable variance. Even the best players don't cash in 85% of the games they play (maybe there are people who are in the top % in terms of skill and are also lucky enough that they ITM the first 15 and lose the next 85!!).

If you look at the centre portion of the bell curve and ignore the outliers it seems a tough row to hoe (making a living).

As to BarryLyndon... obviously the percentile figure means (censored) but values such as "prizes won", "profit", ABI and number of games played are real numbers that are fun to play with.

[Baby Mantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I've spent a fair amount of time at the site and I have made the same observations. But I decided to persue a professional MTT career anyway. There is only one observation that I think you are a little off on: That you have to have a huge bankroll to survive the varience. I started with a bankroll of $0 and have built that up to $448 today. It was at $850 at its peak, but there is a bitch out there named variance. The key to beating variance is not a huge bankroll, but rather good bankroll management. I try to invest 1% or less of my BR into a tournament, but I will occassionally go above that if I think there is a good enough reason (overlay/satelite etc.)
If you are indeed a wining tournament player, your BR will continue to grow until you can afford to play bigger and bigger tournaments.

Here's a few additional comments on your observations.

1) Most players have bad BR management and are just trying to score a big win. While there are a lot of good poker players out there, MTT's are a different sort of game. Players need to focus on making final tables and even more importantly top 3 finishes. Most players focus on making the money. Bubble play is what seperates the great from the many.

2) with 500K plus players ranked, this top 2% is actually 10,000 players. But if you want to make a living playing MTT's you definately need to find yourself in this top 2%. If you can play as well as these players at the lower limits, it will only be a matter of time before you are playing with them in the bigger tournaments and in the top 2%.

3)This is an absolute necessity. If you are playing lower limits you should be playing more. I've logged 125 this month, a little lite, but it's summer and I have been spending time outside. In the winter 300+ will be standard. If you are making a living at it, it sho0uld reflect actual work. But you should also be able to retire early.

4)I addressed this in #1 but I think for most of these players, they would like to see this number higher. $100 is prob less than 1% of there roll. Obv I guess. But there are only so many $100+ buyins a day.

5) This is an important stat. I think most of these players will tell you that they bust either just before the bubble or make it very deep. That's because they are playing to make the FT while others who have 20% of their roll on the line are just trying to make the money. The latter can easily have ITM %'s over 20%. But they will make few FT's because they are not getting aggro enough at the bubble. Actually they probably tighten up at the bubble. HUGE mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow!
I want to say that I love MTTs and never realized that I was playing this way. I was playing to much of my BR and will take the advice of 1% of my BR. I was playing to make the $ when the game was bigger than my BR, and playing more aggressively when it was what I considered a small buy-in. This post alone was eye opening for me and I would like to thank you.

AWESOME ADVICE!!!!!