NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?

[mertzo]

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look the times he has 22 or 77 or TT are limited in this situation, you made a weak bet into that river and he just wants to take it down.. if he plays a full boat like this hes losing lots of value so we'll pay him off every once in a while, i def. bet turn to at least reevaluate the chances he triped up but u have to call that river bet, why would he do that with a boat... he has no idea that card gave you trips

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Your logic is really off, he is loosing value with every possible hand here. With your reasoning you could also since he would be losing money by bluffing here we should fold.

[soon2b]

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Just because on the turn you are WA/WB does not mean that you should not bet. It's not an even distribution between WA or WB (for example, you are WA/WB /w 77 on 27Kr, but WA way more often). I'm not saying a turn check is bad, it's good to mix in, however I think you're missing a ton of value by checking here. So many hands call you, and you're really only behind A7 and AT, both of which I find unlikely given previous action.

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thanks for not making me explain it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[blackize]

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Just because on the turn you are WA/WB does not mean that you should not bet. It's not an even distribution between WA or WB (for example, you are WA/WB /w 77 on 27Kr, but WA way more often). I'm not saying a turn check is bad, it's good to mix in, however I think you're missing a ton of value by checking here. So many hands call you, and you're really only behind A7 and AT, both of which I find unlikely given previous action.

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I doubt a player this nitty even calls with AT or A7 pf. 22 77 and TT are definitely in his range pf and I could definitely see TT floating. Without a read that he can't fold JJ+ with an ace on the board I think a bet is really only getting value from AJ, while checking will get you value from all sorts of other hands.

[munkey]

Bet turn for value/deception -we're IP - if c/raised we can fold -if he check-calls us he likely has weak Ax more often than a slowplayed 2pair/set. We then can check the river IP as he likes c/r it appears.

I actually like villans' river line- though if he's good and missed his turn c/r with a set - the river c/r is the best line vs a TP hand that just rivered trips[vs vilan's FH] rather than a lead - it gets the most money[maybe 100b] when you have Ax -and doesn't lose much value when you Hero was cbetting/holds a PP[15bb max]. Though some kind soul may have to do the proper math to confirm this [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]



Then when his range is polarised on the river I will happily stack off trips2k [Edt: depeding on how nitty he showdowns I've seen him @ teh table]- but not betting the turn u lost value then and the information to vbet him much more later IMHO.

[MakeMuuney]

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Just because on the turn you are WA/WB does not mean that you should not bet. It's not an even distribution between WA or WB (for example, you are WA/WB /w 77 on 27Kr, but WA way more often). I'm not saying a turn check is bad, it's good to mix in, however I think you're missing a ton of value by checking here. So many hands call you, and you're really only behind A7 and AT, both of which I find unlikely given previous action.

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thanks for not making me explain it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Maybe I am misunderstanding WA/WB. I am just saying that I don't see THIS Player call a Good sized bet on turn with most of the hands that I beat.

[blackize]

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Bet turn for value/deception -we're IP - if c/raised we can fold -if he check-calls us he likely has weak Ax more often than a slowplayed 2pair/set.

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I still don't think an opponent with 12% VPIP is going to show up here with Ax any significant portion of the time. I think his range is largely pairs that think you're FOS and decided to float.

[Genz]

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No way his raise-size means that he doesnt have it. He would raise big with FHs as well since his line is wierd.

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Well, his raise size itself doesn't mean it, sure. But it doesn't mean "I have it" just by itself either.
The thing it, that IMHO a boat would probably try to bet small here to get curiosity/bluff catcher calls by KK etc. and a to get raised by an A which he can pretty safely assume that it will happen. THEN he can go for the 3bet and STILL assume that he will be payed off by AK, AQ very often. If you think villain is competent enough to c/r this river to get looked up by trips and maybe even big pairs, he is certainly competent enough to make a smallish bet to get value from weaker hands and not have it checked through.
And another thing that speaks for a bluff is, that if he decided to bluff the river A as a scare card, a c/r bluff is far more credible than just a donk bet. And if he figures he might have some SD value with a pair, he doesn't even mind the risk of getting it checked through.
If he is a nit, his line just doesn't make sense for a boat, imo.

[mertzo]

No way alot of As raises this river for value against SBs line.

[linuxrocks]

Like others have said, this looks like a pair that decided to put you to test as he thought you don't have an ace. I would call.