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#12
07-19-2007, 09:24 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn for sure. People love calling, don't analyze it so much. As played I'd snap call river. You've really underrepped your hand and your river beat is weak and could induce a bluff shove. [/ QUOTE ] Do you always bet the Turn here? I don't mind underrepping me hand, because i get value of weaker hands if the River is a blank. As posted earlier this is WA/WB. If I bet Turn and he check/raises me I have to fold. There's no way this nitty player is doing this move with a hand I beat. Ok occasionaly people like that will play their image, take it into consideration but focus on stats first. In this hand the A on the River doesn't change my hand at all. 77,22,TT still beat me. A7,A2,AT still beats me. Any other Ace has to worry about me having an Ace too. In this hand I'd rather hit a blank on the River then an Ace. 
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#13
07-19-2007, 09:25 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
[ QUOTE ]
If villain had a set or aces up on the turn, I doubt that he'd go for another c/r on the river risking that his big hand gets checked through. [/ QUOTE ] great thinking, after reading that i insta put him on A weak kicker, as he played it and snap call, a10 could be a possibility but unlikely and i think a set is out of the question the way he played, why would he reraise all in and not get any value out of it? at first i thought good fold but now looking back, i def. agree with genz on a insta-call, followed by a fist pump 80-85 percent of the time
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#14
07-19-2007, 09:29 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If villain had a set or aces up on the turn, I doubt that he'd go for another c/r on the river risking that his big hand gets checked through. [/ QUOTE ] great thinking, after reading that i insta put him on A weak kicker, as he played it and snap call, a10 could be a possibility but unlikely and i think a set is out of the question the way he played, why would he reraise all in and not get any value out of it? at first i thought good fold but now looking back, i def. agree with genz on a insta-call, followed by a fist pump 80-85 percent of the time [/ QUOTE ] If villian thinks about the largest amount I'd call with given his read. LEt's say his Read is AJ,AQ,AK. He knows that I will most likely call with my Set of Aces here. So that's why he pushes, to make the most profit of A's and get folds from hands like JJ-KK, which would fold to any raise
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#15
07-19-2007, 09:37 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
Just because on the turn you are WA/WB does not mean that you should not bet. It's not an even distribution between WA or WB (for example, you are WA/WB /w 77 on 27Kr, but WA way more often). I'm not saying a turn check is bad, it's good to mix in, however I think you're missing a ton of value by checking here. So many hands call you, and you're really only behind A7 and AT, both of which I find unlikely given previous action.
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#16
07-19-2007, 09:41 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
What about 22,77,TT? I don't think they are unlikely- Against some random donk I would bet turn most of the time as well. Also vs this guy if I can put him on some kind of draw which is not the case in this hand. But I can't see him calling Turn with a weaker Ace if I make a good sized bet, b/c he is to nitty. Again if I check behind he might feel that his weak Ace is good on river and call a bet.
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#18
07-19-2007, 09:47 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
look the times he has 22 or 77 or TT are limited in this situation, you made a weak bet into that river and he just wants to take it down.. if he plays a full boat like this hes losing lots of value so we'll pay him off every once in a while, i def. bet turn to at least reevaluate the chances he triped up but u have to call that river bet, why would he do that with a boat... he has no idea that card gave you trips
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#19
07-19-2007, 09:52 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
yeah i call the river
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#20
07-19-2007, 09:55 AM
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Re: NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?
Stop calling it a set.
You raised from the button, villain is not putting you squarely on AJ+. You made a standard cbet on the flop, again he can't put you on AJ+ or even an ace. You check the turn, still no reason he should put you on AJ+. The majority of your range after your river bet is likely bluffs since you'll check behind nearly anything with showdown value. This looks like a rebluff to me. I snapcall this and take note of the crazy line he took if he actually shows up with a hand.
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