The whole "opponent needs to fold x% of the time..."

[Idiotex]

Okay looking at this equation:

200x - 100(1-x) = 0

I am happy with the second part (i.e. 100 x .67...)

What is confusing me is the 200x ( why 200x and not one 100x?) part. If the opponent folds 33% of the time we gain .33 x 200 = $66. But we aren't really competing for a $200 pot, but for only the $100 pot. Thus to me the expected value would be equal to .33 x 100 - .66 x 100 = -$33.

Again... what the hell is wrong with me?

To simplify things, the concept seems the same as pot odds. We risk $100 to win $100, thus getting 1 to 1, we need our opponent to fold 50% of the time. Where as if we bluffed $50 to win the $100 pot, our bet would need to be successful 33.33% of the time to break even, as we would be getting 2 to 1 on a fold.

I am just missing some fundamental understanding here.

[Idiotex]

Ahhh... just ignore my post, I like and understand DJK's math... I was sweeping over the situation and thought OP was making a river shove, my mistake....

I am going to go and crawl under a rock and feel retarded now.

Thanks.

[Pokerfarian]

33% is NOT the answer. 33% makes it breakeven if the choice is between FOLDING & betting. If you check you DO NOT HAVE 0 EQUITY. YOU CAN WIN, you can hit on the river if no money goes in on the turn. The answer is IT DEPENDS, a lot on if your IP or OOP, and your opponent.

[punter11235]

My post about it

[Lord_Strife]

Don't we also have to factor in our equity for when he calls and we suckout?

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]

Don't we also have to factor in our equity for when he calls and we suckout?



[/ QUOTE ]

Of course we should. My post explains it clearly (I hope).