TP2K vs all in on river

[Kasane]

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I only had 6 hands on vilain. His line didn't seem like a draw to me but on the river BAM..AI



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Here's your problem right here. His line looks exactly like a draw, and a whole bunch came in on the river. You need to raise more on flop and turn to his little donks -- calculate the odds you're giving him and you'll see that he can profitable call these every time. .50 into 1.50 (3-1); and 1.25 into 4, again 3-1 -- only way you beat that is by not calling anything if it hits.

I'm all for thin value bets on the river. I can't see much that he calls with that's worse on this board, so I'm going with check behind on this river.

Think about this, if your raise to him means big pair or AK, his bet on the flop is meant to see if you have AK or that big pair and draw cheaply to flush. Hm, you raise too small, he'll call with his flush draw -- even oop (he probably shouldn't if your raise is any bigger).

If he is thinking at all, the J has got to worry him. He tries again to draw cheap (this is sometimes a monster, too, looking for you to raise). Lets see, every hand from TT-AA and AK on this board is a good hand -- and he's still in there. That's a draw or something that crushes you.


I call the second donk against some villains for whom that screams strength. We have a decent draw coupled with a showdown hand. Usually I raise it though.

Cliff notes: a major part of his range is draw.

[Capone]

With that weak turn bet and just flat call and then when the flush card hits he raises your almost always beat,

[fursza01]

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With that weak turn bet and just flat call and then when the flush card hits he raises your almost always beat,

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I like the fold because we are almost always beat here and are going to save money in the long run.

[Capone]

yea