Tampa Bay Devil Rays

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Craig! I thought you were



[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I now have felt stupid twice in this thread, since I have no idea what the picture means. Well, I have some idea, since I assume it means I was "MIA" or 'long gone/dead'. But the symbolism of the guy in a snowman uniform flashing people while being crucified on a hidden cross for adding an extra apostrophe to "I'll" is confusing me a bit.

craig

[Jaskohouston]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think that, over the next 10 years, they have less than a 1% chance (on average) each year? What are BOS, NYY, BAL, and TOR chances individually over the next 10 years?

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Look - I don't claim to be an odds whiz. If you want me to tell you how this works over 10 individual years, I'm not sure how to break that out for you.

But I will say this. I don't think the math is right. Because if I assume that 1% is the probability each year that the Rays will win the World Series, that doesn't mean that if you gave me a time frame of 100 years that they would have a 100% chance of completing the task. I could be wrong here, but it doesn't seem to make sense to me.

That said - in summary, I think there is a way, way less than 10% chance the Rays win in the next ten years. I don't see why it has to be broken out year by year.

[Lord_Strife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think that, over the next 10 years, they have less than a 1% chance (on average) each year? What are BOS, NYY, BAL, and TOR chances individually over the next 10 years?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look - I don't claim to be an odds whiz. If you want me to tell you how this works over 10 individual years, I'm not sure how to break that out for you.

But I will say this. I don't think the math is right. Because if I assume that 1% is the probability each year that the Rays will win the World Series, that doesn't mean that if you gave me a time frame of 100 years that they would have a 100% chance of completing the task. I could be wrong here, but it doesn't seem to make sense to me.

That said - in summary, I think there is a way, way less than 10% chance the Rays win in the next ten years. I don't see why it has to be broken out year by year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it doesn't have to be broken down into year by year, I agree. And no not necessarily are they garanteed to win one in the next 100 years either, just because they were 1% each year. It's like rolling a dice every year, they could run bad and whiff for 200 years or they could spike 5 times in the next century, who knows.

I just really feel that they have less than a 10% chance of making this happen from now until 2018. My biggest concern is that they finally take some initiative to put together a team and keep them there, but they can't outspend the Yankees or Redsox. Not to mention the other AL teams that would be crushing them in the wild card... They have to win their division (which we've already discussed) OR finish ahead of Bos/NY, Cleveland, Detroit, White Sox, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Atheltics, Twins, Blue Jays, Orioles, or Royals. I think the only team that might have a worse shot at doing this in that list is the Royals, but that's a completely different discussion for a different day. Most of these teams have had success at different levels and at any given point if certain ones develop into non-contenders, then others will develop into one. Take the Indians and Tigers... a couple of years ago in 2003 the Indians were 68-94 and the Tigers were a dismal 43-119, but now they're playing well again because those teams know how to win.

I do consider this bet a lock and I can't wait to cash it in.

[Thremp]

Lord Strife,

Moving forward Tampa is in a much better position than the White Sox. Surely you wouldn't lay 10-1 on them?

[TomG]

For a bet like this, it's important to use a reasonable estimate of Tampa Bay's average chance of winning for a single year in the 10 year interval. Then use that probability to calculate a line for the entire 10 year interval.

Don't just use your "feel" and jump straight to a probability for their 10 year chance. Your intuition is likely wrong. Look at something like the Birthday Problem Paradox. It's a similar problem mathematically because you're estimating the probability of a rare event occurring. Yet as the sample size grows, it becomes increasingly likely. The answer comes as a surprise to people who rely on only their intuition.

[ImStillBen]

The time frame of this bet is 12 seasons, not 10.

[lotus guardian]

[ QUOTE ]
But I will say this. I don't think the math is right. Because if I assume that 1% is the probability each year that the Rays will win the World Series, that doesn't mean that if you gave me a time frame of 100 years that they would have a 100% chance of completing the task. I could be wrong here, but it doesn't seem to make sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good aproximation for 10 years. They need to have less than a 1.05% chance each season in order to have less than 10% after 10 seasons.

[Jaskohouston]

[ QUOTE ]
Lord Strife,

Moving forward Tampa is in a much better position than the White Sox. Surely you wouldn't lay 10-1 on them?

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I don't see how you can think this.

Chicago has proven that they can win, get into the playoffs, and win the series. Just two years ago. They have a good general manager (who I think will be sending their manager on his way very soon).

But more important is that the White Sox have shown they will spend the money it takes to build a winning team. The White Sox payroll is over 100 million this year. When contracts roll off or free agents come up, they will continue to spend this much. The Devil Rays payroll is $24 million. That's it. Show me how they will significantly spend more than this, more than triple this, and I'll agree they might be in a "better position". However, all this young talent they have, they are going to have to pay up for them, and they simply can't and won't do it. Zero fan base and a worthless stadium.

People like to bring up the Athletics in this area. the A's payroll is 80 million. They are the Yankees compared to Tampa Bay.

Also, Chicago is in the Central. A very competitive division, but they don't have the two titans of spending to contend with. Cleveland and Minnesota have proven to be very savvy with baseball decisions, but they aren't going to beat you over the head with the money stick.

[Thremp]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st.../standings.php

How can you think this?

White Sox are .7 wins better this season and have a old players while the Rays have a much better farm system.

Its like everyone is taken stupid pills.

[letsgojuniors]

Everyone thinks this because CWS can buy new players, and pay them enough to make them stay for many years. TB cannot.

Even if TB's promising farm system pans out, those players wouldn't have that long together before the rich teams came along to pick them up.