Is this maths right? Help please!!!!!!

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

Pushing Js against 10% PFR range...
10% being: 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo..... Js are 57.3% favorite so...
if they call 100% of the time with that range... over 100 hands with the pot after all action
is played as 3k.. you would win 171.9k and lose 128.1k for a net profit of 43.8k. obviously +ev.
but obviously most people dont call with that range.. theyre more likly call with a range like..
TT+,AQs+,AK.. in that case.. Js would only be a 44% favorite to win the hand.. so over 100 hands with 3k being the pot
youd win 132k and lose 168k.. for a net loss of 36k.. obviously -ev.


Assuming they call with top 4% of all hands and fold the other 6% of their range.. means you pick up the
his bet 60% of the time and go up against TT+,AQs+,AK 40% of the time with net loss of 36k...

so.....

to make things as simple as possible.. say both players are on the Blinds and everyone else has folded.. blinds being 25/50.
if he raises your blind with a 10% PFR.. $125 to $150.. you would win $150 from him 60% of the time so..
150x60 = 9k net profit... when he folds..

If you compare that 9k profit to the 36k net loss when you lose against his calling range of TT+,AQs+,AK..
youd be losing.. 27k.. in the long run..

Obviously this example is early in a tournament against somone you play with alot knowing he raises with 10% of all hands.


Lets say its late in a tournament.. and the youre both on the blinds with equal stacks.. the blinds being 500/1000
with 100 antes at a full table of 9 players... which means the starting pot would be 2.4k.
Both players have 14k stacks after paying the blinds..

Now if he raises on the SB with a 10% PFR range.. 2.5k to 3k... you would win 3k+800(antes from other players excluding you)
60% of the time so.. 3800x60= 228k net profit..
but 40% of the time hes gonna call and youll have a net loss of 668.8k... 668.8k = (14k+14k+2.4k(in pot)=(44)(30.4k)- (66)(30.4k))
So late in a tournament it would still be -ev with a net loss of 440.8k... (228k profit - 668.8k loss)


If this is actually the proper maths and [censored] and i havent worked it out all wrong would the same be for Qs
in the same late game situation..


starting pot 2.4k as before.. both have 14k stacks after paying blinds..
60% of the time ill win his bet so.. same as before.. 3k+800(antes from other players excluding you)x60=228k net profit.
40% of the time ill get called but this time ill have a net profit of 179.7k..
because with Qs against a TT+,AQs+,AK+ range.. ill be 52.9% favorite.. so 179.7k=(52.9)(30.4k)-(47.1)(30.4k)

So in exactly the same situation with Qs it would be +EV with a net profit of 407.7k over 100 hands..
407.7=228k+179.7k..


All of this is pretty obvious.. but it makes the decision to fold Js and push Qs against an early raiser
with a 10% PFR range a easy one.


Right/wrong? If wrong how do you work it out in such situations?

[cheburashka]

Using the numbers from first example, I come up with the following:

Blinds: 75
Bet by villain: 150
Total in pot to hero: 225

Hero shove: 2950 [3k stack to start, less 50 into BB]
Villain call: 2850 [3k stack to start, less bet of 150]

Probability villain doesn't call: 60% [your number]
Probability hero will win if called: 44% [your number]
Probability hero will lose if called: 56% [your number]

EV of no call by villain: +135 [60% X 225]
EV of call (hero wins): +541 [40% X 44% X (225 + 2850)]
EV of call (hero loses): -661 [40% X 56% X 2950]
Total EV of shove: +15 [135 + 541 - 661]

This rises to +85 if stacks stay at 3k and the blinds are 50/100, and to +224 with blinds of 100/200.

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

Can you explain the math please?

[ QUOTE ]
EV of no call by villain: +135 [60% X 225]
EV of call (hero wins): +541 [40% X 44% X (225 + 2850)]
EV of call (hero loses): -661 [40% X 56% X 2950]
Total EV of shove: +15 [135 + 541 - 661]

[/ QUOTE ]

I get the top one 60% (he doesnt call) x 225(pot)
Can you explain the rest of them like this so I know exactly what each number means and where it's coming from please.

Also could someone indicate as to why my logic is flawed, I know I am missing something out but I'm not sure what, and can't tell without seeing what each number means in the math above.

Thanks.

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

Ok I think I get it now the 40% is the time he calls, I see what all the numbers are now......

Could someone explain WHY you do it this way(e.g why you times the % he calls by % you win then by pot) as I would like to know the exact math behind it.
Regards

[seke2]

Your OP is barely readable. I have no idea what the hell you're asking. Rephrase question into something more closely resembling a poker hand for better responses.

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

[ QUOTE ]
Your OP is barely readable. I have no idea what the hell you're asking. Rephrase question into something more closely resembling a poker hand for better responses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why even reply with something like this? If you couldn't understand it just don't reply.....simple as that, the other guy understood what I was asking though.

All I want to know now is the math and reasoning behind why you times those exact things by each other, and just to confirm the 40% in it is the % of the time they call.

[seke2]

I replied with something like that because I would have been willing to help you if I understood what you were asking. Many posters around here can vouch for the fact that I've probably do more math posts than most people do around here.

After that response, meh, you figure it out.

Edit: Also, I'm trying to help you become a better poster to help you get better answers in the future by making better posts, but I see that fell on deaf ears.

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

The way you wrote "post is barely readable" came off as a bit rude! Obviously you didn't mean it this way and I'm sorry for my reply! Hehe!

What I am basically asking now is what is the exact math and reasoning behind working out cEV, chebura posted above how to work it out but I would like to know why exactly it is done this way.

If you could help that would be great!

MathzOrAgEAvIt.

[ItalianFX]

Don't mess with seke. Respect him, and the others who have more posts than you do.

Thanks.

[Heyda]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't mess with seke. Respect him, and the others who have more posts than you do.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]


are you for real? or trying to be a loser [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]