24: Satellite to FTOPs (it's PL, don't run away!)

[BarryLyndon]

Three players remaining, two get satellite to the FTOPs. Blinds 250/500

The players (reads/image very important here)

Villain, Button 11,500): Since the final three, he's been playing fairly tight against me (since I have an appearance that I know what I'm doing). Aside from that, he's been more aggro against SB. However, when his stack has been big, it appears that he's been nursing it, hoping to that me or SB leaves. He's never limped on the button before.

Before down to three, Villain was a Laggro donk and won his stack with a lot of very odd hands from all positions that hit the flop hard. Now that he's close, he's been tightening up.

SB ($5,500): Laggtard preflop who plays loose-passive on flops, but shuts down easily on the turn. Very afraid of not qualifying, IMO, and I've been taking advantage of her severely. she's also extremely confused by my play - on a 10c 2s 10d 2c 7c board, three clubs, I value bet A2 at the end, she called with A9.

Hero (10,000) BB: I've been tight against Villain, raising him from SB maybe 1/2.5 orbits. I've been Laggy against SB.

OK, enough of that. Blinds are 250/500.

Villain on button times out, and then limps, SB folds, Hero with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checks:

Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (pot 1000)

Hero checks, Villain bets 500, Hero raises to 2000, Villain insta-calls.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Villain bets 2000, Hero calls.

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Villain insta-shoves 9000, Hero thinks, Villain types in "set."

[kurtkatt]

fold?

dont think he would valueshove worse on river and also it doesnt sound like he would try and do some strange multistreet bluff either... with the set remark he has flush here quite often i would think

[BarryLyndon]

How would you play the rest of the hand?

[levAA]

this is damn hard.
thought over this now for quite a long time and finally i think i had folded it (but with an ugly pain in my stomach), but i think you are behind most of the time.
i would bet him on AA or AK (a flush is also possible but as the way he played less likely - if he plays you tight).

not much wrong with your play only the

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Hero thinks

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i'm missing on the turn - but i also think i would have called it (the turn).

[kurtkatt]

im probably pushing turn a lot. the instacall on flop id interpret as a draw here very often, possibly with the A of clubs. if youve been an active restealer for ex. axcc isnt at all unlikely. since its a bubble sat situation i just wanna end the hand here as he has a lot of outs on turn and if we pick up this pot we should be more or less in.

[Sherman]

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How would you play the rest of the hand?

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I'm leading the turn an awful lot. In fact, I would be happy to settle the hand right there. Betgo had some post some time ago that (although not explicitly stated) said something along the lines of FE far more valuable in satellites.

I agree with him. I think settling hands quickly, especially on the the satellite bubble is crucial. I'd have settled this one by the turn.

[sah_24]

as played im prolly folding but does anyone shove the flop wit almost 2k in the pot and a draw laiden board and bottom two in a satty im shovin here and takin the chips lead thoughts ?

[BarryLyndon]

I really don't want to PSB the flop here because once he raised so quick, I very seriously had a set and a big draw in my head. And Villain, while tightening up, would have no problem taking a flip with 5c4c or even 4c7c. Obv. he calls with his sets.

The turn is the toughest decision, really. Here is the thing: say that my plan is to call on the turn and fold on the river if he fires again. Let's further assume that if I bet on the turn and he calls (I don't see much FE on the turn), that I check on the river, and that pretty much announces that I'm weak and lets him push, leaving me a little lost.

First, are these assumptions OK? And secondly, by calling the turn pretty fast (which I did), does that get me a free river showdown or an easier decision by the river?

Barry

[8Adam8]

I lead flop. Shove over his raise (if he raises)

As played ez fold

[ForRealDD]

Seems unlikely villain is limping an ace otb. With that said it leads me to believe he has some kind of draw (45 or fd). I'm certainly not giving him credit for having me beat on the turn. With that said, I'm definitely not c/c. If you think he's going to make a small stab on the turn, go for the c/pot or just lead for close to the pot.

In these situations (sats on the bubble) I'm not so much look to extract max value as I am trying to accumulate with lowest risk.

As played, I'm almost certainly not calling the river shove being 50/50 win/lose at best.