AKs preflop, very early in a $60 45-man turbo

[bogey1]

Seat 1: Schwags33 (1590 in chips)
Seat 2: hitower222 (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: Starsky25 (1480 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: dyosh (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: bache1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: Trabbitt (1480 in chips)
Seat 8: TPD_ONE (1460 in chips)
Seat 9: ice1963 (1500 in chips)
Starsky25: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad Kd]
dyosh: calls 20
bache1: folds
Trabbitt: folds
TPD_ONE: folds
ice1963: raises 120 to 140
Schwags33: folds
hitower222: calls 140
Starsky25: folds
Hero: ???

Spots like this always bug me. I'm pretty sure I'm up against at least a decent pair, one that's willing to go all in. It's really early, seems silly to go all in this early with AK. Not raising seems weak though.

It is suited, maybe just calling and playing it by ear is best?

[LuckyLucky]

Hey,

What makes you so sure you are up against a pair that is willing to go all in? All he's done is raise a limper and than someone called behind.

I think you should make it 350-400. This will leave you with enough chips if he moves in and you decide to fold. It will also give you a chance to win a decent sized pot without seeing a flop.

If you are putting these guys on just TT-AA here I think you are seeing monsters.

[bogey1]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey,

What makes you so sure you are up against a pair that is willing to go all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

The size of the raises. Donks raise things like 7-10x BB and call 7-10x BB with mid-high pairs. I doubt the caller has JJ+, but he's probably got 66-99 and experience says he'll call a push.

I suspect the initial raiser has a big pair just based on the raise size. If had been your typical 3-4x raise, I'd bump it to 9-10x.

[LuckyLucky]

Interesting. I think that at the 4s and 10s the 7-10 PFR is usually representative of their hand strength, but at the 20s I see this kind of larger PFR with different hands, not just big pairs...I would think at the 60s it's the same, but if your experience tells you this is a big pair than calling is the way to go. I would still suggest raising it though because I'm not convinced. You are putting them on a very narrow range based on just one piece of info.

[bogey1]

[ QUOTE ]
You are putting them on a very narrow range based on just one piece of info.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yes and no. I've tracked a few things over the last year. One was "oddly large raises". It had about an 80% correlation with big pairs (I play $40-60 tourneys).

Another was limp-reraise all-in, same thing, almost always a big pair. There was something else I tried to track on check/raises, but it didn't pan out to anything.

I'm now tracking, for turbos anyway, how often a resteal gets called. The call rate seems pretty high for a resteal, but I'm trying to get a real number.

[woohoo88]

The big raise is usually a fairly narrow range. At this level I can't comment from personal experience, but from what I've read/heard I would say generally TT-KK, AK weighted more to JJ-QQ,AK. I'm really unsure of what the cold caller means for the default player at this level. I suspect it's not generally going to be QQ+, which would make it a fold for me.

I suppose if I had a better default read on the cold caller as being weakish I would either push or possibly go'n'go. Raise to ~500 and shove any flop (or check/shove A/K flops).