#1
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200NL, Semi bluff going bad
Villain seems typical tag. His reraise is obv showing strength. From my limited history w/villain, I don't think he would RR with big combo draw or nut flush draw. So, I'm convinced he has set, maybe AA. Am I getting the right price to call? I don't think this is a good spot at all for push. Your thoughts?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($221.45) Hero ($197) UTG+1 ($257.90) MP1 ($273.55) MP2 ($277.30) CO ($381) Button ($152.45) SB ($163.25) Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $8, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>. Flop: ($19) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, MP1 calls $12. Turn: ($43) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $31</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $78</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
$47 to see $152 or about 3/1 when your odds of hitting the second nut flush is less than 20% ... add the J's available and you are only up to less than 26% or so.
If you have him on a made hand do you think a shove gets him off the hand? That is read dependant Why did you bet the flop? I'd check behind here, evaluate from there |
#3
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
I would bet more on the flop to semibluff, much closer to pot.
Then I would either check the turn or fire out a little over 1/2 pot on the turn, depending on how aggressive villain is and how likely you think it will be that he will try to float you. |
#4
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
Call.
Open shove a jack or club. |
#5
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
[ QUOTE ]
Call. Open shove a jack or club. [/ QUOTE ] |
#6
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
[ QUOTE ]
Call. Open shove a jack or club. [/ QUOTE ] |
#7
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
Why are you guys calling when you are overpaying to hit your hand ... and it won't even be the nuts?
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#8
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you guys calling when you are overpaying to hit your hand ... and it won't even be the nuts? [/ QUOTE ] He's calling 23.6% with 26.1% of hitting a J or club; even if you take out the 9c and 4c it's 21.7% to hit and punish this guy for a further $99 for playing his set like an idiot. You're missing out on tons and tons of value if you always need the nuts to feel comfortable on the river; I know, I've been like that awhile but I'm beginning to open up. |
#9
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
[ QUOTE ]
He's calling 23.6% with 26.1% of hitting a J or club; [/ QUOTE ] I would do that all day ... but it's over 30%, not 23.6 also ... I might do this if it was the nuts I was drawing to ... but it isn't |
#10
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Re: 200NL, Semi bluff going bad
bet more on flop so you can check/raise all in on the turn.
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