Tampa Bay Devil Rays

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious - do you have $10,000 somewhere with no liquidity for 10 years?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he need 10K for this bet? He would be putting up $1K for a $10K payoff in 10 years.

craig

[Jaskohouston]

There is no way the Devil Rays win the series in 10 years. No way, no how.

There's two key parts here. One, the division. It's not just that they have to beat out two teams that will outspend (and not stupidly outspend, but will make some good decisions along the way) them at every turn in the Yankees and Red Sox, and the Orioles and Blue Jays will do the same, although not to the same extent. The problem here is they have to not only finish ahead of these teams - they have to play them 18 times a year. It's not like another division where you'll have several small(er) market teams where one can emerge and make the playoffs (where it's anyone's game). It's just not an environment conducive to them having a shot at the wild card. They simply aren't going to make the playoffs in the first place.

Secondly - the point about them not being able to keep players is true. The organization is a joke, an afterthought in that town. They had to play a series in Disneyworld to attract fans. The stadium is a complete disaster. There are NO plans to change that. Once these guys hit their seven years in and free agency comes up, they are going to be GONE. No one wants to play 81 games a year in that dump and then spend 9 more in NY and Boston getting their asses kicked. And spending enough to keep one of them (like say shelling out for Kazmir or Crawford when it comes time to pay up) won't cut it in that division.

If something happens with realignment, this could change the quality of your wager. Otherwise, I think you have what amounts to a lock here.

[craig]

So despite the odds, even if they have a 1% chance to make the playoffs, you would still say it was a 'lock'? To think that laying 10-1, on a bet that most likely isn't a 10-1 shot, is a 'lock' is why sportsbooks make money.

What do you think TB's chances are?

craig

[Jaskohouston]

I think Tampa Bay's chances of winning the World Series in the next ten years is way, way under 10%. so for me to lay 10 to 1 odds on this, I'd be more than happy.

Sportsbooks make money in part because people will take a flyer on a team like Tampa Bay because the payoff is like a damn lottery. That money is essentially donated.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbooks make money in part because people will take a flyer on a team like Tampa Bay because the payoff is like a damn lottery. That money is essentially donated.

[/ QUOTE ]


hahahahah

[hobbes9324]

Well, I agree....OTOH, I got flogged like a rented mule for having the same opinion for pretty much the same reasons....

MM MD

[ImStillBen]

Rays win 90+ games in 2009.

[B00T]

benny so silly

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Tampa Bay's chances of winning the World Series in the next ten years is way, way under 10%. so for me to lay 10 to 1 odds on this, I'd be more than happy.

Sportsbooks make money in part because people will take a flyer on a team like Tampa Bay because the payoff is like a damn lottery. That money is essentially donated.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think that, over the next 10 years, they have less than a 1% chance (on average) each year? What are BOS, NYY, BAL, and TOR chances individually over the next 10 years?

craig

[NajdorfDefense]

Craig! I thought you were