$11 bubble, call this push?

[earlytimes1]

party $11. 4-handed. blinds are t150/300.

villain open-pushes UTG for t1255, folds to me in BB with t1830 after posting; I have K9o. It costs me t955 to see a pot of t1705, or 1.8-to-1.

villain has been somewhat tight, but about to be blinded with the smallest stack I give him a fairly wide range: say any pair, any ace, any broadway. against this range I am:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.6531 % 37.96% 00.69% { K9o }
Hand 2: 61.3469 % 60.66% 00.69% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

so I'm getting almost exactly the right price to call. the call is worth about t100 in EV.

my question is this, and maybe I'm overthinking: is this a situation where the pot odds and hand ranges dictate a call, or is it an example of what harrington describes as ONLY a fair bet--one which increases volatility, but not equity? this late in the SNG, how much equity is enough to make the call?

(unrelated question: is villain's hand range too tight?)

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
party $11. 4-handed. blinds are t150/300.

villain open-pushes UTG for t1255, folds to me in BB with t1830 after posting; I have K9o. It costs me t955 to see a pot of t1705, or 1.8-to-1.

villain has been somewhat tight, but about to be blinded with the smallest stack I give him a fairly wide range: say any pair, any ace, any broadway. against this range I am:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.6531 % 37.96% 00.69% { K9o }
Hand 2: 61.3469 % 60.66% 00.69% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

so I'm getting almost exactly the right price to call. the call is worth about t100 in EV.

my question is this, and maybe I'm overthinking: is this a situation where the pot odds and hand ranges dictate a call, or is it an example of what harrington describes as ONLY a fair bet--one which increases volatility, but not equity? this late in the SNG, how much equity is enough to make the call?

( unrelated question: is villain's hand range too tight ?)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're the one who has been playing with him. You should know

[caretaker1]

Check out SNGPT, it will answer this question for you.

[Nick Rainey]

I would fold. You have 1800 plenty of chips to get your money in, in a better spot.

[billy51]

[ QUOTE ]
my question is this, and maybe I'm overthinking: is this a situation where the pot odds and hand ranges dictate a call, or is it an example of what harrington describes as ONLY a fair bet--one which increases volatility, but not equity? this late in the SNG, how much equity is enough to make the call?

(unrelated question: is villain's hand range too tight?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Theoretically, I think 100 chips of equity is too much to pass up (i.e. this is not close enough to a fair bet to pass up for the purposes of reducing your variance the way you have layed it out here). However, I'm worried that the range of hands you have assigned to villian may be a little too loose, and as a result, you will not win as often as you think here. But looking at this from a theoretical prospective (which seems to be the purpose of the post) I think you have to call here if you are confident in the range of hands you are assigning to villian.

[lastchance]

Other stack sizes = insanely important on the bubble. Without that information, because Chip EV does not mean $EV.

[earlytimes1]

[ QUOTE ]
Other stack sizes = insanely important on the bubble. Without that information, because Chip EV does not mean $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, 3k and 2k.

[earlytimes1]

[ QUOTE ]

However, I'm worried that the range of hands you have assigned to villian may be a little too loose, and as a result, you will not win as often as you think here.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, tightening the villain's range to any pair, any A8 or better, and any two face cards gives the following:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.5557 % 34.85% 00.70% { K9o }
Hand 2: 64.4443 % 63.74% 00.70% { 22+, A8s+, KJs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo }

which turns out to be exactly EV-neutral.

is this a more reasonable open-pushing range? and if this range is accurate, I assume this is a fold?