NL50: KQo OOP I think a Prudent Fold

[Klompy]

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How do you guys feel about calling the turn and folding to any decent river bet?

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The turn bet is pretty weak. I doubt someone this nitty is going to float and then double barrel, right?

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My thoughts too, although I'm not sure it's better then betting the turn ourselves.

[threads13]

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Well, I bet large on the flop, and he just called. I thought the weakest I would see here was probably AQ; however, of course, there are fewer combinations of the larger Q. I would think, though, that he would have to put me on a pretty large hand when I psbing the flop into 3 players oop.

Idk...I really wasn't sure how to handle it, which is, of course, why I posted it.

What types of hands do you think a tight player is calling a psb on this flop with?

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I didn't see that you had raised this preflop. I have this new thing going where I am not paying attention!!!

Anyways... the type of hands I would expect to see on the turn are FD's, sets, middle pairs that didn't believe you on the flop, or AQ. A lot of players will bet FDs when checked to here. However, if he will do that you will likely face another bet on the river.

Looking at it now, I like the fold.

I also like a preflop fold. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nit-picking but I think the flop bet could have been a touch smaller.

[CazicT]

Yeah I agree that more reads could help. He does kind of have set-miner stats I think. But at the same time, his AF of 3 kinda makes you think he would raise with his sets.

If he had a AF in the low 1's I think a fold is might be easier because it would be more likely he is slow playing and also more likely that he wouldn't bet the turn unless he could be KQ...

[threads13]

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How do you guys feel about calling the turn and folding to any decent river bet?

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The turn bet is pretty weak. I doubt someone this nitty is going to float and then double barrel, right?

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I don't buy calling this bet weak. It is a reasonable bet.

Any reasonably sized bet puts the hero in a tough position here. The only question is whether he will play a FD or medium PP this way.

[subzero]

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What kind of board did you want to see with KQo from EP? Have you considered just folding it pre?

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I typically fold this preflop from EP. I think it's more trouble than it's worth (possible reraise, dominated, hard to control the pot size, etc.)

[QTip]

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You have a couple of thousand hands on him which means his postflop AF of 3 is more concrete than you usually have. This makes him Aggro.

An aggro player would probably raise you on the flop with AQ, although since you put a full PSB on maybe he decided to slow it down.

I think he could certainly have some kind of a flush draw.

He is tight preflop, yes, but he was looking at probably playing a multi-way pot so I wouldn't doubt that SC are in his range. Tightness PF doesn't necassarily mean tightness postflop, I think he could certainly call with a FD or SD facing a PSB.

Just my opinions of course.

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I'm sorry everyone. I was going from memory on villain. I just checked and his exact stats are:

11.02/2.26/1.21

Someone was talking about AF, and I thought I'd double check and found that.

[QTip]

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At first glance, I thought this was super weak, but given villain, I think you're bet here ~ always. Against a nittacular opponent, I don't think it matters that much whether you c-bet with ace high or one pair. Once they call you, they almost always have a set. There's players that just play like this. 13/4/3 isn't quite as nittacular as the sort of player I'm talking about, though, so I think bet/fold or check/call, check/fold river may be a better line against this villain. You need a strong read on villain to check/fold this turn.

% Cold Calls Preflop and Folds to C-bet are relevant stats here, IMO.

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GiantBuddha:

Thx for the response. I don't yet put % Cold Calls PF in my HUD. However, I'm going to fix that today. Would you please comment a bit on how exactly you use that stat to make decisions. What types of #s indicate what in conjunction with the fold to cbet, etc.

Thx.

[threads13]

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You have a couple of thousand hands on him which means his postflop AF of 3 is more concrete than you usually have. This makes him Aggro.

An aggro player would probably raise you on the flop with AQ, although since you put a full PSB on maybe he decided to slow it down.

I think he could certainly have some kind of a flush draw.

He is tight preflop, yes, but he was looking at probably playing a multi-way pot so I wouldn't doubt that SC are in his range. Tightness PF doesn't necassarily mean tightness postflop, I think he could certainly call with a FD or SD facing a PSB.

Just my opinions of course.

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I'm sorry everyone. I was going from memory on villain. I just checked and his exact stats are:

11.02/2.26/1.21

Someone was talking about AF, and I thought I'd double check and found that.

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This would make me deduce that he is less likely to have a FD and therefore the fold gets better.

[Klompy]

qtip,

With the new stats, this is a fold.

fwiw I'm also in the fold preflop camp.

[QTip]

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qtip,

With the new stats, this is a fold.

fwiw I'm also in the fold preflop camp.

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Klompy:

Thx.

I do play KQ pretty often. For me, atm, it helps to balance my game a bit. I'm not active with many scs and so forth yet. If I raise PF in EP, my range is really frickin narrow. So, I toss KQ in there. I have no idea what most have, but these are my KQ stats thus far (only 53,406 hands)

KQs - 176 times

vpip - 84.66
PFR - 51.7
Win - 47.16
bb/H - .89

KQo - 475 times

vpip - 35.79
PFR - 44.00
Win - 35.79
bb/H - .10

My stats atm are 15.12/7.27/3.34

Without KQ, I'd be a huge nit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, I'm going to be expanding this at some as I learn to play gooot (or at least better [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).