insane push or standard?

[Todd Terry]

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There's 11K in the pot when Temp pushes for 25K more. Assuming an overpair where he is a 60-40 dog if called:

EV(push) = 11000p + (.4(36000) - .6(25000))(1-p)

where p = probability Villian folds to a push

EV > 0 if p > .05

Which means that if the probability of Villian folding an overpair is greater than 5%, shoving is a +EV play. Which means you have to shove, because with a random player I think it's well above 50%.

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You should realize that while this proves that the shove is +cEV it does not prove that it is the maxEV. (Although I believe and I think every other poster so far agrees that once the flop gets 3 bet that the shove is indeed maxEV)

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I agree, I was just responding to the point that you had to believe that Villian would fold in order to shove here. Calculating the EV of a call would be such an effort in speculation that it would be a useless endeavor IMO.

[0evg0]

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SB had AA and made the call

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This is why the ME is the most profitable tournament in existence, and why the first raise is so bad.

Even if he "knows" he's beat, he's not folding.

He's a clueless retard who has POCKET ROCKETS!

[nath]

MLG is totally right, Temp played this hand very well and if you don't like the flop line, you may want to reexamine if you're aggressive enough for tournaments

[DLizzle]

i think if his line is the best way to play this hand I will have to quit tournaments because they are too retarded

[markysals11]

i like it, i think he has to put you on a set here most of the time and will likely go away, unless you are giving away some sort of physical tell of course

[0evg0]

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MLG is totally right, Temp played this hand very well and if you don't like the flop line, you may want to reexamine if you're aggressive enough for tournaments

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Nath,

Just curious, but why does the fact that we are in a tournament setting affect the best line?

[nath]

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MLG is totally right, Temp played this hand very well and if you don't like the flop line, you may want to reexamine if you're aggressive enough for tournaments

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Nath,

Just curious, but why does the fact that we are in a tournament setting affect the best line?

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Well, even if the EV of the two lines is equal, and I'm not at all convinced it is, a play which gives us both the best chance to take down the pot uncontested and gives us the best chance of winning a big pot (i.e. the higher-variance play) is preferable in a tournament setting.

Also, the type of opponent we're facing here is important because we're never going to run into 87 or a set vs this guy; it's always a big pair, and people in live tournaments live to make big folds

[THEOSU]

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MLG is totally right, Temp played this hand very well and if you don't like the flop line, you may want to reexamine if you're aggressive enough for tournaments

[/ QUOTE ]

Nath,

Just curious, but why does the fact that we are in a tournament setting affect the best line?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, even if the EV of the two lines is equal, and I'm not at all convinced it is, a play which gives us both the best chance to take down the pot uncontested and gives us the best chance of winning a big pot (i.e. the higher-variance play) is preferable in a tournament setting.


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yeah, in tournaments the ultimate goal is to win every chip. additionally, the risk to win a big stack is often massively worth it, because (in general), the bigger the stack, the easier it is to continue to accumulate, particularly live.

[hockey coach]

MLG -

Do you shove sets and straights there as well? If not he's correct to call. If so does that get us the most value across the entire range of hands we might reasonably hold here?

What line do you take w/ the Vill's AA here?

HC

[MLG]

hockey,
I'm not sure I agree with your reasoning. I certainly raise my sets and straights the first time around (which is another good argument for raising the flop lead), however as the pot gets bigger meta-game considerations fade and this hand becomes more important. So, when he 3-bets if I have a set/straight my sole focus is, how likely is it my opponent will call a push this hand, and if I don't push how likely is it that he will put his stack in on later streets. Against an unknown early in the wsop me, im clearly not giving him credit for deciding to call me because he thinks my weighted range of pushing hands is in disharmony. So, generally speaking with 14k in the pot and about 21k behind Im going to call the flop and try to get it in later. In big pots against bad players (ie early in mtts) balancing your game to be unexploitatable is not nearly as important as unbalancing your game in an exploitative manner is.

As for what I would do with AA in a different spot. I'd make it like 1k preflop probably (as I'd do with all raising hands from the blinds with over 100x), lead the flop, call the raise and go from there. Against somebody who I thought was a good enough, tricky enough player that I didn't think I'd be able to fold, I might even check the flop because if I know im not going to fold I want to weaken my perceived range to villain, as well as expand the range of hands he will put money in with. Against a predictable villain, I'm straight v-betting the flop, and calling the raise thinking there's a decent chance he's semi-bluffing and will take the free one on the turn. If he bets the turn on a blank I will look into his soul (and flip a coin).