simple hand for simple minds

[stan ivey]

2/4 6max

400 dollar stax

dumb unknown raises to 8 on button, i raise to 26 in SB w/AhJh, button calls

flop (56): Th 8h 2d

i bet 36, button calls

turn (128): 3s

i check, button bets 71, i go all in

[Terrabon98]

std

[MrHoobris]

Standard. Good for balancing purposes and with the size of the pot and the amount of equity you have he has to fold less than ~20% of the time for the play to be +EV as it stands. If he checks behind you're happy to take the free card.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
to fold less than ~20% of the time for the play to be +EV as it stands

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get the number ?

I dont want to do full math but here is summary of how it should look like :

You have 336$ remaining.
If he folds you win 200$ (128+71 more or less)
If he calls you lose : 336$ - your equity in final pot = 336$ - 200$ = 136$ (if your equity is as high as 25% which is rpetty optimistic).

So you either lose 136$ or win 200$. It looks like you need him to fold about 40% of the time not 20%.

[MrHoobris]

You're right, I didn't use the correct equity we had in the hand. Here's the math when done right (I hope the second time around :S).

Board: Th 8h 3d 2s

Hand 0: 67.769% { TT+, 88, ATs, KTs, QTs, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, 9h7h }
Hand 1: 32.231% { AhJh }

Pot Size = 128 + 71 = 199
Left to Shove = 400 - 16 - 36 = 348
Final Pot Size = 800
P(fold) = X

EV(0) = X(199) + (1-X)(0.32*800-348)
X = 32%.

With 25% equity we get
EV(0) = X(199) + (1-X)(0.25*800-348)
X = 43%, like you said.