Two pair gets lots of heat on the turn, what to do on river

[mikeca]

Friday night live 3/6 game. A mix of loose passive players and several LAGs that have recently joined. Nine handed table, but one person was walking, so eight handed.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in SB.

Three of limpers, LAG in cutoff raises, button calls, I call, and BB calls, limpers all call.

I figure AJs should play well in a multiway pot like this. Should I 3-bet here? Comments?

6 players, 12 SB, flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I like this flop. Top pair and a flush draw.

I bet, everyone calls.

6 players, 9 BB, turn is [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now two pair and a flush draw.

I bet, one fold, called around to a middle LAG who raises, cutoff (LAG) 3-bets, button calls 3, I call, I think it was folded to middle LAG who called.

I’m thinking someone has QT or JJ, maybe AK or another AJ, but I had a flush draw, pot was huge, so calling two was easy.

4 players, 22 BB, River is [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

No flush. River card looks harmless. What should I do here?

[PokerJans]

What are we going to beat on the river? Not much. I would probably check and call one bet though.

[furyion21]

The LAG in cutoff raising three limpers prf potentially gives him a wide range of hands, including AA, KK, JJ, AK, KQ, KJ, Ax, Kx, K5, QJ, QT, 55.

This is a great looking flop for you, and even better since no one popped you for 2 bets. I don't think anyone who knows anything about poker is slowplaying AK here.

The J might look like a good card for you, but it completes the gutshot that one of the 6 players is correctly drawing to for 1 bet. You needed protection on the flop; probably try c-ring the prf raiser if you are fairly sure he is betting (LAG suggests he will). Even if he doesn't, it's not the end of the world; if the flush card comes, you have the nuts, potentially making someone the second best hand, in which case you get paid off.

The turn betting is very strange. You get raised then 3-bet, then the button COLD CALLS 3 bets. You have to call 2 bets here with your huge flush draw, but at this point, it's safe to say your two pair are no good. Your J is probably a good out, but the A could be dirty.

I check/call river. Cutoff has you beat, button was drawing to a flush, and middle LAG is just dead money. If anyone but middle LAG calls/bets out, I fold.

[Harv72b]

I would probably have reraised preflop depending on just how LAGgy the cutoff is, but I don't hate a coldcall either.

Check/raise the flop. It's a live game so you're probably only going to get raised by a better hand when you lead, killing the bet/3-bet option. If it checks through you shouldn't be too upset as you likely have the best hand and the best draw--missed some value but oh well. The main reason to check/raise here is to protect your made hand from other, weaker draws (or weaker made hands). And potentially to buy even more outs when you didn't flop the best hand.

I play the turn the same and check the river intending to (over)call for 1 bet.

[mikeca]

First, I want to thank everyone who replied.

I guess everyone agrees that check/call is about all I could do on the river. I did check, with the intension of calling one bet. I probably would have folded if it had been raised, but as it turned out, the river was checked around. I showed my two pair, and everyone else mucked without showing!

After the river was checked through, I was kicking myself for not betting the river. Would bet/fold would have been a better line on the river than check/call or is that too results oriented?

I agree that a check raise may have been better flop play in this situation. Usually this game is so passive. Players with Ax or Kx would be afraid to bet at this flop, so I always just bet out in a situation like this. With a preflop raise from a LAG in the cutoff and a couple other LAGs in the hand, it would be unlikely to be checked around here. I need to learn to adjust my play to the table conditions better.

I have been trying to figure out what hands make sense for the turn play. The middle LAG had been at the table for more than an hour, was drinking and having fun, posting kills. He played about 90% of his hands preflop, made lots of junk 2 pair hands and had been on a hot streak. A hand like J5 would make sense for his play, but maybe he just had a Q or T and was raising on the gut shot draw.

The cutoff had not been at the table long, but had played a lot of hands aggressively and seemed like a LAG. The hand that makes the most sense to me for his play is KJ. On the flop he didn’t raise because he had second pair, but 3-bet the turn on two pair to try to clear out players with Ax that might spike a better hand on the river. I guess when both the button and I called, he was afraid to bet the river. I suppose he could have had something like QJ, JT, QQ or TT, and was trying to clear out Ax and Kx hands too.

The button took a long time to fold, checking his hand and the board a couple of times before he mucked. I’m guessing he was double checking he did not have a straight/flush before he folded.

[StrictlyStrategy]

Dude, you played it fine.


You should have posted the action after you check though as checking is obvious.

[Shillx]

Raise more on the turn. You only put these guys on hands that beat you. That seems like the polar opposite of how a bunch of LAGs figure to play. But it doesn't really matter what they have on the turn. Two pair and the nut flush draw is going for max raises in a 4 way pot no matter what.

[beset]

How is the turn not a cap? Honest Q. The pot is very multi-way and even if you are losing now which you aren't very often your equity has to be sufficient to raise again. I will run it later kind of curious.

[mikeca]

Some people think I should have capped the turn. I guess this is on the theory that the flush draw makes it profitable to cap. I don’t quite see this.

There are 46 unseen cards, and 9 of them give me the nut flush. That means I will make the nut flush 9/46 times or about 19.6% of the time. At the point I could have capped, I think there were still 4 other players in the hand (one folded to the 3 bet rather than calling 2 more). If they had all called, this still would have not quite been a break-even bet.

I can see making this kind of raise on the flop, with two cards to come, but I don’t see it on the turn.

Now I guess you also have to factor in that I had other outs, J or A and the chance that I already had the best hand and could win unimproved. I don’t think the A or J outs are completely clean here, so I don’t think they can be counted as 4 more outs, but they might be 2 outs. This would mean I would win about 24% of the time. If 4 people would call my cap, this would be profitable, but that is not clear. In fact only 3 called the 3-bet, which makes this break even.

I’m not sure how to factor in the odds that I am already ahead and could win unimproved. At the time I thought those odds were small, but I was obviously wrong about that. Perhaps that makes this a thin value bet.

Is there something I am missing here?

[Shillx]

The only way it isn't a cap is if someone has AA (or JJ+AK) or if you are beat and another flush draw is out against you. You should cap this [censored] at a table full of nits let alone a table full of lags.