Realistic Expectations?

[gettinpoorer]

I started playing on Sportsbook in early April. I had been exclusively playing Sitngos on Bodog with consistent, but modest, success, but I wanted to switch to cash games to earn more per hour. I figured the cake network would offer soft competition to cut my cash game teeth in. I have played about 17k hands or so, starting in the 20 dollar max being very tight since I didnt' want to have to deposit more. Once I got up to 500, I dabbled in 50max when I could find a really soft game, buying in short. Now I play a mix of 50 and 100max, usually playing 2 or sometimes 3 tables at a time. I only buy in for 75 or so at 100. I will dabble in a 200max game if the pots are big and the see flop percentage is high. I'm just trying to get an idea of whether or not these results are valid or just variance. I feel that i play pretty well, having a good read on my opponents and very often getting my money in with the best of it. I hav read super system 1 and 2, theory of poker, NL holdem theory and practice. Cake has no PT support, so all I have is a spreadsheet. My financial results to date are below. I know that there are up and down swings, and I keep on expecting things to settle down a bit, but not so far.
Date Amount
04/25/07 100
04/30/07 300
05/22/07 650
05/29/07 880
06/26/07 1231
07/06/07 1717
07/07/07 1910
07/08/07 1980
07/09/07 2059
07/10/07 2024
07/11/07 2131
07/12/07 2178
07/15/07 2282

is 2k dollars in earnings per 17k hands maintainable at the stakes I play? The players seem pretty bad...

[Bad Beat Maker]

Please search around for bankroll management threads, seems you're already going bad on BR management having been playing with just 10 buyins at each level. Now it seems okay with $2k for 100NL.

[gettinpoorer]

I understand about the 20 buyins rule and and have used a combination of buying in low, looking for very easy to beat games, and getting my money in when I have the highest edges to try and get by on less up to this point. I'm only buying in for 75 when I play at 100 or 200 max. Does 20 100 dollar buy ins for 200NL follow BR guidelines?

[itWASaDREAM]

The reason people suggest 20 buy ins is because its assumed that you are buying full at the games you are playing. Playing short I don't think will change the fact that you should have 20 buy ins. Its just going to change the strategy you have to play while your playing.
Also you don't have any pt stats so this is an assumption, but 2k over 17k hands seems like your on a huge heater...

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
Also you don't have any pt stats so this is an assumption, but 2k over 17k hands seems like your on a huge heater...

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed, although good for you. I'll take a heater any time the Poker Gods give me one. But now that you've got 2k, I'd suggest you start buying in full at 100NL for a while. If you feel you are beating a game, then it's best to buy in full so you can maximize your winnings in a pot. You always want it to be the other guy all-in since if you're the one all-in, and you're ahead, you're missing out on winning the rest of the other guy's stack.

2k is 20BI for 100NL, so I'd say stick with it until you're sure it's not variance. That way you've got confidence KNOWING that it's your decisions that makes you a winning player over many many hands, and having grown your bankroll to hopefully about 4k, you'll know you're not getting in over your head giving 200 a shot.

[thrasher789]

This is gonna sound rediculous but I'm brand new to the site and alot of the terms I dont know what they mean, can someone explain what variance means exactly in this context? Also even more embarrassing is what is 100NL actually mean, is it 1/2$ stakes NL or what, I'm sure its obvious but I just dont know exactly what it means.

[br.carlos]

[ QUOTE ]
This is gonna sound rediculous but I'm brand new to the site and alot of the terms I dont know what they mean, can someone explain what variance means exactly in this context? Also even more embarrassing is what is 100NL actually mean, is it 1/2$ stakes NL or what, I'm sure its obvious but I just dont know exactly what it means.

[/ QUOTE ]

NL 100 is .50/1... 100 cents. nl400 is $2/$4.

[thrasher789]

awesome thanks, I thought it may be referring to 50 buy-ins or something, much simpler than I thought.

[gettinpoorer]

I'm definitely beating both the 50 and 100NL games. Not that I'm a pro, it just seems like there's a constant influx of poor players that pay off my good hands (or push their bad ones too hard). I would not say that I've had a great run of cards, though I also have not had a protracted run of second best hands, which seem to be the biggest bankroll killers.

Perhaps this is just a big winning streak. I keep on waiting for the downswing, but the numbers keep climbing. PT is supposedly adding support for Cake soon. Then I can do some in depth analysis.

[4_2_it]

17k hands isn't enough for you to be sure of anything. I'd say stick with the level you are rolled for (NL $100) and take shots when your roll gets to 15 buy-ins for the next level. Also, check out the Master Sticky in SSNL [edit link ]. There are some threads that you will find helpful.